Bitcoin Price May Drop Below $100,000: Here’s Why It’s Likely Despite Rising Accumulation

Bitcoin’s recent price action has seen a marked decline, with the cryptocurrency struggling to break free from a persistent downtrend. 

Despite ongoing efforts from investors to accumulate Bitcoin and secure gains, these efforts appear to be failing in the face of broader market pressures. 

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Are Not Sure Of A Rise

In the current market, investor sentiment has clearly shifted toward accumulation. Smaller holders, including those with 1 BTC and those holding between 10 and 100 BTC, are actively buying, driving demand in their respective cohorts. This activity suggests a growing conviction in Bitcoin’s future potential. 

However, the larger holders—those with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC or more than 10,000 BTC—have not shown the same level of buying interest. These larger holders, whose trades typically have more impact on the market, are holding back. Without their support, the accumulation from smaller holders is insufficient to drive Bitcoin’s price upward.

Bitcoin Trend Accumulation Score. Source: Glassnode

As a result, Bitcoin’s price remains in a state of stagnation. While the enthusiasm from smaller investors is notable, it has not been enough to break the downtrend. 

Looking at the broader market context, the current macro momentum for Bitcoin also points to significant challenges. Realized profits data show that a disproportionate amount of selling is coming from long-term holders (LTHs). 

These investors have seen substantial profits over time and are now cashing in, which is leading to a sizable increase in selling pressure. In fact, LTH selling surpassed $1 billion in a single day this week. This surge in profit-taking, combined with low buying activity from larger holders, has placed significant downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Realized Profits By LTH/STH. Source: Glassnode

BTC Price Is Facing a Downtrend

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is sitting at $103,527, still below the critical resistance level of $105,000. For the price to escape the ongoing downtrend, stronger accumulation is needed. The current lack of buying pressure from large holders means that the downtrend is likely to continue unless significant changes occur in investor behavior.

If Bitcoin’s price continues to fail in breaking through the downtrend, it could fall to the $100,000 mark. Prolonged downtrend, combined with the lack of strong buying, suggests that the decline could extend, potentially sending Bitcoin towards $98,000.

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source:  TradingView

However, if Bitcoin can secure $102,734 as a support floor, it could trigger a more positive trend. A strong accumulation of Bitcoin, particularly from larger holders, could propel the price past $105,000. This would mark a significant reversal, invalidating the bearish thesis and opening the door for potential price gains.