Bitcoin Holders Show Record Conviction as Prediction Markets Price in a Calm June

• Polymarket traders give Bitcoin a 61% chance of hitting $115K in June, with minimal bets on a $150K breakout.
• Whales on Binance are showing rare patience, holding BTC despite near-record prices and declining inflows.
• On-chain data reveals strong demand at $101K support, while volatility may be underpriced by options markets.

While prediction markets are betting on a relatively calm June for Bitcoin, deep on-chain data reveals a story of record-breaking conviction from long-term holders who are refusing to sell, signaling a powerful bullish undercurrent for the BTC market. 

As Bitcoin hovers near its all-time high, this disconnect between short-term expectations and long-term holder behavior is becoming a key focus for analysts. Data from prediction platform Polymarket reveals that the most likely scenario for Bitcoin’s price by the end of June is $115,000, with a 61% probability. 

Traders are pricing this level as the most probable outcome , reflecting confidence that BTC will maintain its current strength without an immediate breakout. Here’s a breakdown of the odds:

• $115K: 61% chance (Buy Yes at 61¢)
• $120K: 29% chance (Buy Yes at 29¢)
• $100K: 32% chance (Buy Yes at 32¢)
• $95K and below: Combined probability under 20%
• $150K: Only 2% chance (Buy Yes at just 2¢)

While traders are optimistic about upside continuation, they expect Bitcoin to trade within a $100K–$120K range in June, with a significant number betting on consolidation just around its all-time high.

Related: Michael Saylor Urges Apple to Invest in Bitcoin

Analyst Sentiment: No Profit-Taking Yet, Bulls Still in Control

Analysts like Crypto Dan argue that despite Bitcoin’s sharp rebound to $110K, whale behavior is atypical. In past cycles, such levels were met with aggressive profit-taking, yet this time, large holders seem unusually patient.

“Whales show no intention of taking profits at this price level and are likely to wait for higher prices,” Dan noted, hinting that we’re still far from the cycle top.

This sentiment is echoed by Darkfost , who stated that during previous cycle peaks, whale inflows to Binance exceeded $5 billion–$8 billion, followed by steep corrections. Today, however, exchange inflows hover around $3 billion and are declining, implying that whales are holding back and expecting higher valuations.

Glassnode Data Confirms Long-Term Holders Are Riding Out the BTC Rally

Data from the on-chain intelligence firm Glassnode confirms this trend of bullish restraint . After hitting a new all-time high of $111K, Bitcoin briefly pulled back to $101K, but quickly rebounded to $110.3K. Importantly, this bounce occurred right at the short-term holder cost basis of $97.6K, which is acting as a robust support level.

Glassnode also observed that long-term holders (LTHs) are realizing $930 million/day in profits, yet showing signs of hesitance to fully offload. Realized profits from holders of 1y+ BTC have plunged from $126 million to just $13.6 million, an 89% drop, indicating fewer mature investors are selling.

Related: Strategy’s Michael Saylor Reveals Why Bitcoin Beats Gold in Currency Collapse Protection

Options markets are pricing in low volatility, possibly underestimating an impending volatility spike. While profit-taking exists, it is not outpacing demand.