A new survey of former Federal Reserve insiders indicates a more moderate and cautious outlook for interest rates

According to a report by Jinse Finance, former Federal Reserve officials and staff, whose views were collected by former Wall Street Journal economics reporter Jon Hilsenrath, expect both the unemployment rate and inflation rate in the United States to rise in the coming months. This could further complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on interest rates. Respondents indicated that they anticipate the Fed will maintain its expectation of two rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, although many former officials believe that a single rate cut or even no cut at all might be more appropriate. The results of this survey are being released just as the Fed is set to hold a policy meeting this week, during which officials will announce economic forecasts. This will be the first time the Fed has released such forecasts since Trump announced sweeping import tariff policies. The federal budget bill currently advancing in Congress may also become one of the key factors influencing the Fed’s decisions this week.