Bitcoin surges to $105k amid fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement as tensions rise again

BREAKING: The BBC is now reporting new missile launches from Iran at 08.30 BST, potentially breaking the ceasefire just moments after Israel’s acceptance. 

Bitcoin returned above $105,000 early Monday after Israel formally accepted a ceasefire proposal brokered by the United States, capping a volatile 48-hour period that saw rapid escalations in the Iran-Israel conflict and renewed market exposure to geopolitical risk.

Per the BBC, the ceasefire was declared “in effect” by President Donald Trump around 06:08 BST on June 24, following a final exchange of missile strikes between Tehran and Jerusalem.

Iran confirmed it had fired a final volley of rockets toward Israeli territory hours earlier, killing four people in Beersheba. State media in Tehran also reported that nine civilians were killed and 33 injured in the Iranian city of Gilan in what authorities described as an Israeli-led attack immediately preceding the ceasefire window.

The Israeli government formally agreed to the truce around 07:10 BST, stating it had achieved its military objectives and eliminated what it described as Iran’s dual existential threat of nuclear and missile capabilities.

Bitcoin rallies as risk sentiment shifts swiftly

As news of the ceasefire broke, Bitcoin rose to $105,155.52, gaining 7.6 percent from local lows near $98,000.

The move aligned with renewed investor appetite for risk and correlated with upward movement in other asset classes, including a one percent gain for the Israeli shekel and drops in safe-haven assets such as oil. Bitcoin’s intraday recovery coincided with a broader relief rally across global markets as fears of an extended regional conflict subsided.

Shorts were hit hard by the rally, with over $350 million liquidated in the last 24 hours. A total of $471 million has been liquidated when long positions are included, but the vast majority of liquidations have impacted those betting against Bitcoin.

Across crypto derivative platforms, 89% – 100% of liquidations were short positions.

Bitcoin price rally (Source: TradingView)

Ceasefire timeline of events

The ceasefire announcement followed a sequence of high-stakes military and diplomatic moves. On June 22, U.S. aircraft carried out coordinated strikes on Iran’s main nuclear facilities, crossing a red line previously set by Tehran.

According to reporting from the BBC, Iran responded on June 23 with a symbolic attack on a U.S. base in Qatar, which Doha said resulted in no casualties. The final and deadliest round of attacks occurred just hours before the ceasefire’s effective start, with Israeli and Iranian cities sustaining direct hits that left civilian populations under extreme duress.

President Trump announced the ceasefire via Truth Social, asserting that Iran and Israel had agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted a conditional acceptance on X, stating that Iran would halt its military response if Israeli attacks ceased by 04:00 local time in Tehran.

Israel halted operations shortly after that deadline passed, and both sides began adhering to the new terms as of early morning on June 24.

Trump wrote that both sides had approached him “almost simultaneously,” framing the ceasefire as a diplomatic victory. He thanked both nations for what he called a pathway to peace and prosperity.

Despite the de-escalation, regional tensions remain unresolved. The Israeli government warned it would respond forcefully to any violations, while Iranian media claimed the ceasefire had been “imposed” and remained unacknowledged in formal diplomatic channels.

Iran’s Fars News Agency initially labeled Trump’s announcement as “completely false,” though subsequent statements from officials appeared to align with a de facto cessation of hostilities.

Markets react to Israel / Iran ceasefire

Market reaction has reflected relief, but the underlying fragility of the ceasefire remains. Bitcoin’s price movement shows its continued sensitivity to real-time geopolitical events, and its alignment with broader currency and commodity trends reinforces its role as a speculative barometer rather than a risk-off hedge.

Bitcoin investors have increasingly tracked geopolitical developments for cues on volatility, and Monday’s price action served as a case study in how fast digital asset markets can price in macro-level developments.

Bitcoin trades 24/7 when all other markets are closed and is now the financial indicator of geopolitical stability. While most Bitcoiners would argue that price should rise during unpredictable times, it has yet to achieve that safe-haven status.

As a decentralized, self-sovereign, unfreezable asset that can be easily transferred globally within minute,s Bitcoin has plenty capacity to behave as a flight to safety. However, current events showcase that institutional adoption of Bitcoin is diluting this message as corporate whales seemingly ignore this core aspect of Bitcoin.

The ceasefire follows twelve days of escalating hostilities that culminated in airstrikes, retaliatory bombardments, and the deaths of multiple civilians across both nations. Though weapons have gone silent, statements from both governments emphasize conditionality and the potential for resumed conflict.

In true Trump style he named the war himself on social media, declaring it must be referred to as the ’12 Day War.’

As of press time, Bitcoin remains above $105,000, trading in tandem with a risk-on global environment as ceasefire terms hold.

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