TD: The Next Risk Facing the US Dollar Comes from Canadian Pension Funds Increasing Hedging Efforts

According to a report by Jinse Finance, TD Securities believes that the US dollar will continue to decline, as Canadian investors—one of the largest holders of US stocks—are under pressure to increase their currency hedging ratios for US dollar assets. “Since the beginning of this year, the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar has diminished, leading these funds to increase their demand for hedging long exposures to US assets,” wrote the TD Securities team of Jayati Bharadwaj, Mark McCormick, and Linda Cheng in a report on Friday. A further decline in the US dollar “will further prompt Canadian investors to adjust their hedging policies, which could in turn exert additional downward pressure on the currency pair.” In the first half of 2025, the Canadian dollar has already risen more than 5% against the US dollar, marking its best start in nearly a decade. TD strategists predict that the Canadian dollar will continue to appreciate. They expect the Canadian dollar to reach 1.31 against the US dollar by December, which would be its strongest level since 2022 and about 4% higher than the current level of around 1.3665. The TD team estimates that Canadian pension funds—some of which have explicit policies for under-hedging US assets—have a hedging ratio of about 10% to 15% on their positions. Overall, Canadian investors hold about $1.8 trillion in US stocks. The analysts wrote that a marginal 5% increase in the hedging ratio could result in about $90 billion in selling pressure on the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.