Trader's Insight | How Will the Market React After Bitcoin Breaks New Highs?

A year ago exactly, Trump was shot in the right ear during a campaign rally speech, also leaving behind a historic fist-pump photo. After this incident, his election as president officially launched the United States Crypto Capital plan, and the price of Bitcoin also surged from $60,000 a year ago to over $120,000 a year later.

But more than just Bitcoin's price changed in this past year. During this time, the cryptocurrency market structure has also undergone a significant transformation. Will this be a raging bull market or a phased bull market? What impact has Bitcoin's widespread consensus had on the market? Where will the policy wind take cryptocurrency next?

After Bitcoin surpassing $120,000, everything must start anew. This article will share the opinions of several traders on the post-market outlook for cryptocurrency as Bitcoin breaks its all-time high.

Macro Policy Direction

Regulatory Line in the Sand: The CLARITY Act

The most talked-about recent cryptocurrency-related bill is the upcoming vote on the "CLARITY Act" bill on Wednesday, which has generated a high level of discussion within the community. This bill will define the regulatory boundaries for cryptocurrency.

In a recent analysis report, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer stated that the "CLARITY" Act could be a turning point for the digital asset market. Due to the uncertainty in terms of legal compliance, many institutions are still adopting a wait-and-see attitude. However, this legislation may provide long-awaited regulatory certainty for asset management companies, hedge funds, banks, and other traditional financial institutions.

Additionally, the trader known as "UnethicalTrader" believes that with regulatory oversight shifting from the SEC to the CFTC, the market may undergo a significant realignment in its underlying logic. The coin ecosystem is also expected to differentiate accordingly: mature assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum may be unequivocally classified under CFTC supervision, while other coins that do not meet CFTC standards will continue to fall under SEC oversight, creating a scenario where commodity and investment contracts coexist.

Simultaneously, trading platforms may need to re-register with the CFTC and complete compliance processes, and the spot market may move towards a standardization similar to commodity futures. If CFTC regulation becomes more relaxed and clear, it is seen as a positive development. In the future, the market may witness a "coin-changing trend," with various projects actively aligning themselves to obtain more favorable regulatory status, driving a new round of market rotation.

What Impact Might the Possible Rate Cut Have?

With the Federal Reserve deciding to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.5% range during the June 17-18 FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that if not for the Trump administration's new tariff policies potentially boosting inflation, the Fed may have already started cutting rates. There are two voices in the market, one suggesting that with continued pressure from the Trump administration, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may "consider" resigning, significantly increasing the likelihood of a rate cut at the July 30th FOMC meeting.

However, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut at the July 30 FOMC meeting has dropped from 24% in June to 5%. The market generally expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September or December.

Although it's uncertain whether it will be July or September, the trend toward rate cuts seems quite clear. Trading observer BTCAB5 is optimistic about this and suggests that if a rate cut happens on July 30th, BTC could test $135,000. Additionally, Standard Chartered Bank even predicts $250,000 by the end of 2025. Rate cut expectations also favor compliant tokens like XRP and SOL, especially against the backdrop of the upcoming "GENIUS" Act vote. Morgan Stanley goes as far as to predict that by the end of 2026, the Fed may cut rates seven times, bringing rates down to 2.5%-2.75%, providing long-term positivity for risk assets such as crypto.

CPI Expectations

Renowned KOL @unaiyang stated that the U.S. June CPI data to be released tonight at 20:30 will be a decisive factor for the short-term market, directly impacting the price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The current market consensus expects a core CPI of 3% and a CPI annual rate of 2.7%. She noted, "If the data is below expectations, it may trigger a retreat in U.S. bond yields, a weakening U.S. dollar, a boost to risk assets, and Bitcoin could potentially return to the $122,000 range, while Ethereum may rebound to $3,200. However, if the inflation data still shows 'stickiness,' it may suppress market sentiment, leading to a short-term BTC pullback to the $115,000–116,000 range and ETH potentially dropping to the $3,000 level."

The current market is in a tense situation, with macro data becoming the sole variable of high concern for traders. In a context of high pressure and unclear direction, more investors are choosing to wait and see, awaiting clear guidance from macro data. The announcement of tonight's CPI may become the catalyst for the next market trend.

When Will the Craze of Public Companies Buying Bitcoin Fade, and How Will It Affect Cryptocurrency?

As more and more public companies transform into "crypto treasuries," the influence of ETFs is diminishing, and the impact of public companies and institutions on cryptocurrency is gradually rising. KOL moneyordebt pointed out that to sustain Bitcoin's power law growth, a massive amount of new capital is needed, and only institutions can provide such a large volume. Fortunately, institutional adoption is also accelerating exponentially, especially with corporate "BTC treasuries" taking over from ETFs as the main driver of price increases. Bitwise's Chief Research Officer @Andre_Dragosch also presented data expressing a similar view, stating, "Retail growth is almost nowhere to be found, and the latest rally is mainly driven by institutions."

On-chain analyst @_43A6 also, based on renowned trader James Check's theory, considers public companies' mNAV data as one of the trading indicators, alongside Days to Cover and Days to Replace as two auxiliary indicators. mNAV (Market Value-to-Net Asset Value ratio) has become a key indicator in determining a company's intention to buy or sell Bitcoin: when mNAV is above 1, it means the company's market value exceeds the value of its Bitcoin holdings, incentivizing stock issuance and Bitcoin purchases; whereas when mNAV is below 1, it may prompt the company to sell Bitcoin to buy back stocks, thereby correcting the market cap deviation. Once mNAV rapidly compresses among multiple top companies, it may trigger a collective sell-off and cause a chain reaction.

Bitcoin Reserve Company's mNAV Dashboard, Source: checkonchain

Although mNAV is lagging due to market price influence, it already holds leading signal significance on the behavioral game level and may become an important forward-looking indicator of future Bitcoin market volatility. Additionally, the newly introduced indicators Days to Cover and Days to Replace are proposed to assist in observing the public companies' "buying" direction, with the former measuring the time needed for the company to fill the valuation premium at the current rate and the latter evaluating the pace to double the current holdings.

Meanwhile, as MicroStrategy (MSTR) holds nearly 80% of the total Bitcoin holdings in public companies, its market dynamics are being seen as a key indicator of Bitcoin price trends. James Check mentions that observing the recent issuance of three types of preferred stocks by MSTR — convertible bond STRK, investment-grade bond STRF, and high-risk-rated bond STRD — will serve as a good top signal. Once the prices of these preferred stocks fall below the face value of $100, it indicates that the market is starting to reassess MSTR's funding sustainability and the potential risks of its Bitcoin exposure. By monitoring bond yields and credit spread changes, investors can get early insights into possible market top signals.

MSTR Three Preferred Stock Trends, Source: Checkonchain

In the current scenario where institutional capital has become a driving force behind Bitcoin's surge, the credit cycle and asset leverage of companies like MSTR, known as "crypto treasuries," are quietly forming a new systemic variable for the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin Financial Attribute Transformation

From the MVRV data perspective, the current Bitcoin price cycle appears healthier compared to the previous cycle. The MVRV of 2017 exhibited a classic "tulip bubble," while in 2021, institutional entry and leverage fueled a rollercoaster MVRV scenario. This year's MARV data curve is smoother and more natural, signifying a transition from disorderly to orderly, irregular sharp movements to gradual oscillations with a healthier and more genuine demand side.

@Trader_S18 mentions that post the passage of the "CLARITY Act," Bitcoin's Nasdaq-like attributes may decrease, while its commodity-like attributes will strengthen. This implies that in the future, the reference benchmark for BTC price trends may shift to some extent from U.S. stocks to follow the trends of commodities like crude oil, gold, copper, and soybeans. For example, when Trump threatened to impose a 100% tax on Russia, causing WTI prices to drop, BTC also experienced fluctuations.

Formation of Broad Consensus and Rise in Bitcoin Holding Cost as Key Support Points for Bull Market

On-chain analyst James Check recently released a study highlighting the highly robust structural features of the current Bitcoin market, where the "rising holding cost" and the significantly high percentage of Long-Term Holders (LTH) have become core variables supporting the continuation of the bull market.

Key Cost Price Model

In its constructed Key Cost Price Model, it can be clearly observed that compared to the previous quarter, the overall market's relative holding cost has shown a significant increase. This means that with each price pullback, the market's "average buy-in cost" will rise, forming a higher chip stacking area. According to URPD-R indicator data, currently over 55% of Bitcoin's holding cost is concentrated above $90,000, creating a strong on-chain support zone. James Check emphasizes that unless an extreme systemic event occurs, this range is difficult to easily break through.

As of 2025-7-14 Investment Wealth Distribution by Realized Cost

At the same time, the LTH (Long-Term Holder) indicator has released a rare historical signal. As of July 14, 2025, about 80% of Bitcoin has not been transferred in the past five months, indicating that the market chips are extremely stable, and selling pressure is scarce. By looking at the "Realized Value Distribution Heatmap" and the "Holder Group Profit-Loss Status Chart," it can be seen that a large number of long-term holders choose to continue holding in the face of global uncertainties (such as geopolitical issues, stock market adjustments, tariff fluctuations), demonstrating a steadfast belief structure.

Relative Holding Quantities of Various Holder Groups in Profit-Loss Status

Additionally, @_43A6 further interprets the "Peak HODL" signal, indicating that when LTH holdings peak, the market often sees the start of a bull run. The average cost of LTH is around $35,000. If an MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) of 5 is reached as a reference for an extreme bull market top, then the theoretical top price mentioned by James Check could be as high as $175,000. However, the probability of this extreme scenario is very low. Most long-term holders will gradually realize gains at "life-changing level" profit points (such as 5x, 10x) instead of a one-time market dump.

Furthermore, André Dragosch, PhD has listed data to explain part of the reason for this phenomenon. He states that the view that "Bitcoin set a new high because the U.S. dollar fell by more than 10% in 2025, and Bitcoin did not rise, it was just currency devaluation" is incorrect. In fact, Bitcoin's beta coefficient to the US Dollar is about -1.5, indicating that Bitcoin's increase far exceeds the implied increase from the Dollar devaluation itself. This suggests that the proactive exit of LTH is a core manifestation of a healthy market structure, mature chips, and the release of real value, rather than a simple currency illusion.

Can We See a Bearish Trend?

Renowned analyst and artist Crypto_Painter indicated that after Bitcoin briefly surged to $123,000, the spot market's premium index continued to decline, while the open interest did not decrease accordingly, indicating clear signs of top-selling behavior among U.S. investors. At the same time, long positions in the futures market kept increasing, leading to a situation where spot selling and futures buying were mismatched. He pointed out that if this structure persists, the market may experience a technical pullback in the short term, suggesting that short-term long positions tighten their stop-loss orders until the spot premium is restored.

However, Crypto_Painter also emphasized that no fundamental breakdown has occurred in the overall trend structure, so he maintains a "pullback instead of bearish" view. He further noted that although the market has already experienced a significant initial pullback, thus alleviating some short-term risk, the medium-term risk is accumulating due to the continued decline in the premium. While long positions supporting the price during the pullback may provide short-term stability, in the context of a declining premium, it will be difficult for the uptrend to continue.

He expects that the market will likely enter a period of consolidation to allow for sentiment and structural recovery. Within the current consolidation range, the three green potential support zones indicated in the chart remain effective, and it is not advisable to easily shift to a bearish view unless they are all breached. What is truly alarming is if the price declines while the premium further slips, which could trigger a deeper market plunge and signal a trend reversal. Crypto_Painter concluded, "In the current situation, we shouldn't fear pullbacks but rather fear uncontrollable premiums."

Meanwhile, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio has also chosen to adopt a wait-and-see approach. He published an analysis of the ETH/BTC exchange rate on his personal channel, stating: "Although the price trend of the past week is encouraging, I need to see ETH/BTC break out of the current range of 0.022-0.027 to confirm a structural breakthrough. My short-term target is 0.03, a level that now seems within reach. If Ethereum can hold above the $4,000 mark, the target level of 0.04+ in a higher timeframe will also come into view. If this scenario plays out, there will be a huge operational space moving forward."

Despite Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high and market sentiment being extremely bullish, looking back at the year, with its political turmoil, regulatory changes, and capital reallocation, this Bitcoin bull run is no longer just a price fluctuation. It is a systemic reevaluation driven by global capital flows, institutional signals, and technological faith.

As the bull market's momentum shifts from retail speculation to institutional adoption, and from a liquidity game to a hodl-oriented structure upgrade, the narrative of this surge seems to have transitioned from the traditional "bull run" every four years to a question of whether this is the "beginning of a new crypto order."