Key takeaways:
Ether is outperforming Bitcoin this week, with the altcoin reclaiming $3,000.
The ETH/BTC pair broke above its 200-day moving average, with the RSI breaking a three-year downtrend, hinting at a structural shift.
Fractal analysis suggests ETH could surge to $18,205, with the near-term target at $4,000.
After reclaiming the $3,000 level for the first time since Feb. 1, Ether ( ETH ) exhibits strength in its performance relative to Bitcoin ( BTC ). While Bitcoin slipped to $116,500 on Tuesday, ETH posted daily gains, setting new highs at $3,090 for the week.
A potential driver behind Ether’s upward momentum is capital rotation from Bitcoin. According to analytics firm Swissblock , Bitcoin’s prior four bullish expansions lasted between 15 and 30 days. With the current rally reaching day 12, BTC profit-taking could be underway, redirecting capital toward altcoins, especially ETH.
This shift is reflected clearly in the ETH/BTC pair. The one-day ETH/BTC chart has registered a bullish break of structure for the first time since May 24, signaling a trend reversal. Notably, ETH/BTC also reclaimed a position above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year, signaling medium- to long-term strength.
Further adding to the bullish narrative, ETH advocate Ted Pillows pointed out that the ETH/BTC weekly’s relative strength index (RSI) has broken free from a three-year downtrend. A golden cross is also looming, reinforcing the case for a structural trend change.
Combined with a drop in Bitcoin dominance, these signals collectively suggest a brewing altseason, where Ether could outperform Bitcoin in the weeks ahead.
Related: Ethereum becomes preferred treasury asset for tech-savvy firms: Ray Youssef
Can Ether rally 1,110% this cycle?
Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader posted a compelling fractal analysis suggesting that Ether ( ETH ) may follow a similar trajectory to Bitcoin’s 2018–2021 market cycle. Projections indicate that the rally from April’s low of $1,550 could evolve into a 1,110% “vertical phase,” potentially pushing ETH to around $18,205.
The analysis highlights a pattern of a 63% correction followed by a 342% recovery rally, closely mirroring Bitcoin’s historical behavior during its previous bull cycle. This thesis is further reinforced by Ether’s recent 100% rebound since the second quarter, pointing toward the early stages of a fractal breakout.
However, while the pattern is visually compelling, it is essential to note that fractal analysis remains largely speculative. It lacks empirical, peer-reviewed validation, and its interpretive nature makes exact outcomes difficult to predict. Despite these limitations, the historical parallels continue to fuel optimism among bullish ETH supporters.
Adopting a more technical approach, analyst Daan Crypto said that the immediate target for ETH remains $4,000 after it entered the upper half of an 18-month cycle range. In an X post, the trader mentioned ,
“$ETH Has moved into the upper half of its massive cycle range. $2.8K & $4K are the only levels you'll be needing on the higher timeframe. Anything else is noise in my opinion.”
Related: Bitcoin‘s ‘most reliable reversal pattern’ hints at BTC price rally toward $160K
