US Nonfarm Payroll Data to Be Released Tonight, Results Will Significantly Impact the Fed’s September Rate Decision
According to Jinse Finance, the U.S. July employment report, scheduled for release at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Friday, is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, a significant decline from June’s 147,000. The unemployment rate is projected to edge up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than June’s 0.2%. If these forecasts are accurate, it would reinforce the view that the labor market is slowing, though it may not necessarily require a response from the Federal Reserve. At this week’s policy meeting, Powell did not provide guidance on the September rate decision, noting that much data will be released before then. Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls report will be a key piece in shaping expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Analysts point out that if nonfarm payrolls come in below 100,000 and the unemployment rate rises, it could signal a weakening labor market, dampen the Fed’s renewed hawkish expectations, and put pressure on the dollar, which would be favorable for a rebound in gold prices. However, if nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly exceed 150,000, the dollar’s strength may persist, as robust U.S. employment data could rule out the possibility of two Fed rate cuts this year.
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