Key takeaways:
ETH eyes record monthly close, unlocking potential for a year-end rally.
History shows August’s average 60% gains into December despite September dips.
Monthly MACD flips bullish, echoing past signals that preceded major uptrends.
Ethereum’s native token, Ether ( ETH ), is on track for its highest monthly close, above the current record high of around $4,955.
This move could unlock as much as 60% further upside by year’s end.
Ether gains 60% on average after a green August
Whenever ETH closes August in the green, the following months have historically delivered about 60% on average returns.
In August 2017, 92.9% gains set the stage for another 91% rally into year-end, according to data resource CoinGlass .
In 2020, ETH added 25.3% in August before surging 69% from September to December, with November alone bringing in 59% profits as DeFi adoption accelerated .
Even in 2021, when the market was already overheated, a 35.6% August was followed by another 17.8% climb into December.
On the flip side, when Ethereum ends August in losses, year-end performance has averaged a -14.1% drawdown, underscoring the importance of a green close this month.
But there is one more nuance. Every bullish August has been followed by a red September, averaging about a 17% dip.
These early pullbacks often shake out traders with “bear market PTSD,” according to analyst Axel Bitblaze .
Once panic selling clears, Ether has gone on to stage powerful rebounds into the final quarter.
Related: Crypto whales buy $456M Ether in ‘natural rotation’ from Bitcoin
BitBlaze sees ETH resuming its bull trend toward $6,800–$7,000, which aligns with targets previously flagged by Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick and other market analysts .
A continuation of the typical post-August rally pattern could see Ether extend even further, with a 60% climb from current levels placing prices near $7,375 by December.
Ether MACD flips bullish
Ethereum’s monthly MACD has just confirmed a bullish crossover, which means the shorter-term momentum (blue) line has moved above the longer-term one (orange).
In past cycles, such crossovers have marked the start of big rallies.
Ethereum’s MACD flipped bullish in early 2020, right before ETH price exploded by more than 2,200% into its 2021 peak. Another occurred in late 2023, which preceded a rebound of over 120% into mid-2025.
By contrast, the MACD’s bearish crossover in early 2022 coincided with a brutal downtrend that erased over 70% of Ether’s value, showing how pivotal these signals can be at the turning points of a market cycle.
With a fresh bullish crossover now in play, the bias tilts back to the upside, reinforcing projections for ETH to extend toward the $7,000–$7,500 zone by the end of 2025.
