Where Could Opendoor's Shares Be Five Years From Now?

Opendoor ( OPEN -7.59%), the leading instant home buyer (iBuyer) in the United States, delivered significant volatility to its shareholders following its merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on Dec. 21, 2020. Its shares debuted at $31.47, climbed to a peak of $35.88 on Feb. 11, 2021, then plunged to a record low of $0.51 on June 25, 2025.

At its lowest point, there were concerns that Opendoor might be removed from the exchange. However, at the time of writing, its shares are trading around $6.65, meaning that $1,000 invested at its bottom would now be valued at over $13,000. Could the stock continue to rebound and return to its former highs within the next five years?

How has Opendoor changed over the past five years?

As an iBuyer, Opendoor quickly buys homes for cash, renovates them, and sells them through its own platform. Pricing is driven by artificial intelligence algorithms. The company enjoyed strong momentum when borrowing costs were low, experiencing rapid growth during the housing surge following the pandemic in 2020 and 2021.

But in 2022 and 2023, its expansion slowed as higher interest rates cooled the real estate market. This environment pushed Zillow ( Z 2.26%) and Rocket ( RKT 0.49%) Redfin to shutter their expensive iBuying operations in 2022, effectively leaving Opendoor as the main player in the space.

Opendoor continued to face challenges in 2024, despite three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Still, in the first half of 2025, the business began to stabilize: its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin improved, and its net loss shrank from $201 million to $114 million compared to the previous year.

Data source: Opendoor.

This recovery was supported by stable interest rates and new partnerships with builders, agents, and real estate platforms, which reduced Opendoor’s reliance on its core iBuying business. The company is also enhancing its AI technology and growing Opendoor Exclusives, a platform that connects sellers directly with buyers.

These newer, asset-light approaches—which don’t require Opendoor to purchase or renovate homes—could help the company earn a greater share of revenue from higher-margin commissions. As these initiatives expanded, Opendoor cut staff, lowered transaction and commission expenses, and trimmed other costs. These actions further decreased its net losses and led to a positive adjusted EBITDA margin in the second quarter of 2025.

What’s ahead for Opendoor in the next five years?

Although Opendoor appears to be at a potential inflection point, the company reduced home purchases again in the second quarter of 2025, with a 63% decline sequentially and 51% year-on-year. It projects revenue to fall 38% to 43% year-over-year in the third quarter, with adjusted EBITDA returning to negative territory. Analysts forecast a 20% revenue drop for the year to $4.1 billion, though they expect adjusted EBITDA to improve from a $142 million loss to a $66 million loss.

Opendoor blames the slowdown on persistently high mortgage rates, ongoing affordability challenges, and more homeowners pulling their listings. The company does not anticipate a housing rebound in the near future, so it is curbing home purchases to prevent excess unsold inventory.

However, the real estate market is expected to recover in the coming years. The timeline is uncertain, but projections call for Opendoor's revenue to grow 6% in 2026 and rise 16%, reaching $5.1 billion in 2027. Analysts also predict that adjusted EBITDA will turn positive in 2027.

With an enterprise value of $5.3 billion, Opendoor is trading at just 1.3 times its projected sales for this year, making it appear undervalued. If the company meets analyst expectations, maintains a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2027 to 2030, and achieves a higher price-to-sales multiple of four, its share price could climb more than six times to around $40, surpassing its previous record.

Nonetheless, this growth depends on interest rates moving lower and a recovery in the U.S. housing sector. If these conditions are not met, Opendoor could struggle as momentum fades. Still, I believe the current slowdown won’t persist for five more years, so Opendoor’s stock should gradually appreciate as market activity picks up again.