Bitcoin’s Path to $1M: Safeguarding Wealth in a Divided Global Economy

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has made a striking forecast about Bitcoin, suggesting the digital currency could eventually hit a price of $1 million per

. Hayes’ outlook comes against the backdrop of growing institutional engagement and significant macroeconomic changes, particularly as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent moves on interest rates have influenced both market mood and investment decisions.

Hayes bases his projection on a strongly optimistic perspective, viewing Bitcoin as a robust store of value that may surpass conventional assets amid shifts in global monetary policy. He references historical patterns, noting Bitcoin’s ability to withstand economic turbulence and inflation. As financial conditions shift, the cryptocurrency is increasingly perceived as a safeguard against the devaluation of fiat money and broader financial system risks.

The Federal Reserve’s September 2025 decision to lower rates by 25 basis points—despite raising its inflation expectations for the year—has elicited mixed reactions across both traditional and digital asset markets. This rate cut improved liquidity and led to a temporary dip in the U.S. dollar, but the Fed’s cautious stance—signaling fewer rate reductions than anticipated—created uncertainty among investors. This change contributed to a brief downturn for both Bitcoin and

, with Bitcoin falling to $100,300 and Ethereum dropping beneath $3,600 following the Fed’s update. The revised inflation expectation of 2.5%, up from 2.1%, reflected persistent worries about overheating in the economy, which could restrict Bitcoin’s short-term potential.

Despite these near-term fluctuations, institutional momentum continues to provide strong support for Bitcoin. North America, especially the U.S., remains at the forefront of worldwide crypto activity, having received an estimated $1.3 trillion in on-chain value from July 2023 to June 2024. This surge is propelled by institutional players, with leading firms such as

, Fidelity, and increasingly allocating Bitcoin and Ethereum within their investment strategies. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETPs in the U.S. in January 2024 was a watershed moment, enabling record-breaking capital inflows and reinforcing Bitcoin’s standing in traditional financial markets. For example, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) became the quickest ETP to reach $20 billion in assets under management, underscoring the appetite for institution-level crypto investment.

The rising interest from institutions is further supported by advancing regulatory frameworks and improvements in market infrastructure. In the United States, regulatory clarity is a key factor underpinning its dominance in the crypto industry. While the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation has created a clearer path for digital assets in Europe, the U.S. is still behind in passing comprehensive rules for stablecoins and other crypto assets. This ambiguity has caused a shift in stablecoin activity from U.S.-regulated venues to overseas exchanges. Nevertheless, U.S. lawmakers are facing mounting pressure to clarify crypto regulations, as the lack of clear rules could weaken the dollar’s position in blockchain-based commerce and reduce U.S. influence in global finance.

Looking forward, the intersection of traditional finance and crypto is expected to grow closer, as more investors and institutions explore the particular benefits of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Kevin Tang from BlackRock remarked that the conversation has moved beyond just accessing Bitcoin to a deeper understanding of its place in diversified portfolios, especially as a hedge against inflation and a buffer during global uncertainties. This shift reflects the increasing maturity of the crypto market and its acceptance within mainstream finance.

Although short-term market movements in response to economic changes remain unpredictable, Bitcoin’s long-range outlook is underpinned by structural trends like institutional participation, regulatory evolution, and macroeconomic dynamics. While Arthur Hayes’ $1 million target may appear bold, it fits into the broader story of Bitcoin as a long-term store of value with the potential to outperform legacy assets as the world moves toward greater digitalization and monetary innovation.