Bitcoin Could Surge to $117,500 but Must Hold Key Support at $112,000

Bitcoin’s current price movements are attracting interest as it hovers close to significant support and resistance points, with technical signals pointing to either a challenge of the $117,500 resistance or a possible drop below $115,200. The cryptocurrency is valued at $113,132 at present, and after being pushed back from $120,000, it has created a downward channel on the 4-hour chart. Experts highlight that the 20-day and 500-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are sitting near $114,800 and $116,800, respectively, which defines a crucial trading range. Should Bitcoin recover and stay above the 20-day EMA, it could spark a bullish push toward $120,000. However, if it fails to maintain its position above $112,000—a historically strong support—further downward movement may follow.

The technical analysis points out that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is getting close to its signal line, hinting at a potential change in momentum. At the same time, lower trading volumes along with favorable EMA positioning could set the stage for a price reversal. On-chain information shows that more than 20,000

that had been held for less than 155 days were offloaded at a loss over the past week, with the most significant outflows seen on August 21. This recent round of short-term selling, combined with a reduction in Micro Cycle Risk (MCR), suggests increased market liquidity and growing investor optimism.

Developments surrounding Bitcoin ETFs add another layer of complexity. While there were three straight days of outflows near the end of August, total net assets remain high at $146.18 billion, indicating firm conviction among long-term investors. ETF performance is closely linked to overall market trends, where shifts in liquidity often come before major price changes. Nevertheless, the ETF’s recent swings highlight the dangers of depending too heavily on institutional activity in a market that can shift direction abruptly.

Sentiment in the market is divided. Although bullish signals such as the convergence of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages point to growing momentum, there’s still a threat of a dip below $115,200 should short-term sellers gain the upper hand. The nearest support at $112,000 has historically drawn strong buying interest, yet a breach could speed up declines toward $110,000. On the other hand, a confirmed move above $117,500 would signal a return to bullish territory, with potential for a rise toward $124,500.

Experts warn that the high volatility in the market requires traders to be cautious. The mix of technical signals, ETF trends, and on-chain data presents a complicated landscape where momentum could change rapidly. It is recommended that traders keep an eye on volume-supported breakouts and significant EMA levels to better assess the chances of lasting directional moves.

Source: [1] BTCUSD Trader’s Cheat Sheet for