Bitcoin's Transformation into Digital Gold: Central Banks Aim for Reserve Status by 2030

According to projections from Deutsche Bank,

might be added to central banks’ balance sheets by 2030, potentially serving as a supplementary hedge asset alongside gold. The German bank’s research points to a shift in Bitcoin’s role, moving from a speculative asset to one that is more stable and mature. This outlook is supported by recent developments, such as Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility dropping to record lows in August even as its price surpassed $123,500, indicating increased institutional trust and less speculative trading title1 [ 1 ]. The bank noted that Bitcoin and gold are expected to complement each other as diversification instruments to guard against inflation and geopolitical stresses, but neither is seen as replacing the U.S. dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency title2 [ 2 ].

The analysis draws a comparison between the development of Bitcoin and the historical trajectory of gold. Gold, which was once highly volatile and not widely trusted, gradually evolved over centuries to become a key global reserve asset.

experts highlight that Bitcoin’s limited supply—about 95% of its 21 million coins have already been mined—and its low correlation with conventional assets could encourage central banks to treat it similarly to gold. While Bitcoin’s market value stands at $2.2 trillion, it still trails gold’s $20 trillion capitalization title2 [ 2 ]. Clearer regulations, evolving macroeconomic conditions, and improved technological infrastructure are identified as crucial factors in moving Bitcoin from skepticism to broader acceptance title3 [ 3 ].

Central banks are already adjusting their reserve management approaches. The U.S. dollar’s portion of global reserves has fallen from 60% in 2000 to 43% in 2024, with China cutting its U.S. Treasury holdings by $57 billion in 2024 title1 [ 1 ]. Deutsche Bank links this trend to expanding cryptocurrency regulations and concerns over reliance on the dollar. Gold’s record price of $3,763 per ounce in 2025 highlights its lasting desirability, but the bank argues that Bitcoin’s digital scarcity and decentralized features make it an attractive addition to central bank reserves title1 [ 1 ].

The report warns that Bitcoin’s price swings still represent a significant challenge, though this volatility is likely to decrease as adoption grows and more institutions get involved. Past examples, like gold’s 60% decline from 1980 to 2001, demonstrate that sharp price fluctuations are not unusual for assets emerging as reserves. Deutsche Bank’s analysts emphasize that governments will continue to prioritize control over their monetary systems, ensuring the dollar maintains its dominance. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s reputation as a “safe-haven” asset could rise, especially as central banks seek alternatives to traditional reserves in response to inflation and geopolitical risks title4 [ 4 ].

Market forces further reinforce the argument for Bitcoin’s place in reserves. Since late 2023, over $50 billion has flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting institutional optimism, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) at the forefront. While occasional sharp drops, like the $1.5 billion in liquidations seen in September 2025, underline ongoing risks, analysts believe that Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a macro hedge is gaining traction. The bank’s findings suggest that Bitcoin’s progress resembles that of gold: a gradual shift from a fringe asset to mainstream acceptance, influenced by time, regulation, and shifts in the broader economy title3 [ 3 ].