Bitcoin’s Path Resembling Gold: Central Banks Consider Diversification Strategies by 2030

Deutsche Bank forecasts that

could be added alongside gold to central bank reserves by 2030, suggesting the digital asset may serve as an additional hedge during times of global tension and rising inflation Bitcoin to Join Gold on Central Bank Reserve Balance Sheets by 2030 – Deutsche Bank [ 1 ]. The bank’s report points to Bitcoin’s decreasing price swings, evolving regulatory landscape, and similarities to gold’s historical integration as major factors supporting its potential adoption by sovereign institutions. Although the U.S. dollar still represents 57% of worldwide reserves, Deutsche Bank observes a trend toward diversification, highlighted by China’s $57 billion reduction in U.S. Treasury assets in 2024 Bitcoin to form part of central bank reserves ‘by 2030’ [ 2 ].

In August 2025, Bitcoin’s 30-day price volatility dropped to record lows, even as its value climbed past $123,500, indicating a transition from speculative activity to broader institutional adoption Bitcoin to Join Gold on Central Bank Reserve Balance Sheets by 2030 – Deutsche Bank [ 1 ].

experts believe that Bitcoin’s limited supply of 21 million coins and its minimal correlation with conventional assets make it an attractive option for central banks seeking diversification. The bank draws comparisons to gold, which also saw its volatility decrease over time before becoming a key reserve holding. Gold is currently trading at all-time highs above $3,763 per ounce, up more than 40% so far this year Central Banks Could Hold Bitcoin Like Gold by 2030: Deutsche Bank [ 3 ].

The bank stressed that Bitcoin and gold are likely to act as complementary hedges, not direct competitors to the dollar. “Neither asset is expected to supplant the dollar as the main reserve currency,” the report explained, adding that governments will continue to prioritize monetary sovereignty Bitcoin to Join Gold on Central Bank Reserve Balance Sheets by 2030 – Deutsche Bank [ 1 ]. Still, Bitcoin’s significance could grow as central banks look for ways to counter inflation and geopolitical risks. Demand from institutions has surged, with companies acquiring Bitcoin at a rate three times higher than new coins mined in 2025 Bitcoin’s Institutional Tsunami: Deutsche Bank Sees Central Banks [ 4 ].

Geopolitical shifts, moves to reduce reliance on the dollar, and regulatory advancements all bolster the argument for Bitcoin’s inclusion. Nations such as Brazil, Russia, and the U.S. have launched strategic Bitcoin reserve initiatives, while the MiCA framework in Europe seeks to harmonize crypto regulations. Deutsche Bank noted that Bitcoin’s adoption could follow gold’s path, moving from skepticism to widespread acceptance as regulation and macroeconomic factors evolve Bitcoin to Join Gold on Central Bank Reserve Balance Sheets by 2030 – Deutsche Bank [ 1 ].

Nonetheless, there are hurdles to overcome. Bitcoin must continue to demonstrate lower volatility and establish secure custody solutions to satisfy central bank requirements. The bank emphasized that regulatory certainty, deep liquidity in both spot and derivatives markets, and institutional-grade custody are essential for reserve inclusion. With a current market cap of $2.2 trillion and 95% of its supply already issued, Bitcoin is a scarce asset, but its effectiveness as a hedge is still unproven compared to gold’s long-standing history.

Analysts estimate that Bitcoin’s price could reach between $203,500 and $275,145 by 2030 in optimistic scenarios, fueled by institutional interest and broader economic trends. Gold remains the leading reserve asset, but its 12% average correlation with stocks since 2020 highlights its role as a portfolio diversifier. Bitcoin, which has also shown a 12% correlation with the S&P 500 and negative correlations at times, presents a unique hedging opportunity Bitcoin’s Institutional Tsunami: Deutsche Bank Sees Central Banks [ 4 ]. Deutsche Bank’s analysis concludes that Bitcoin’s future as a reserve asset will depend on the evolution of market infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and central banks’ openness to integrating digital assets into their reserve management strategies.