Macro Instability Spurs $600 Million Shift from Bitcoin ETFs Back to Gold
- Bitcoin ETFs saw $600M in outflows by Sept 25, led by Fidelity’s $276.7M FBTC redemptions amid price drops below $110,000. - Gold surged to $3,700/oz as institutions shifted capital, outperforming Bitcoin’s 24% YTD gain amid macroeconomic uncertainties. - Analysts warned of deeper Bitcoin corrections below $107,500, with Tephra Digital projecting $167K–$185K potential if gold correlations hold. - Regulatory scrutiny and the CLARITY Act added uncertainty, while Deutsche Bank highlighted Bitcoin’s long-ter
On September 22, 2025, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record-breaking outflow of $363.1 million, the highest single-day withdrawal ever recorded in this sector, as reported by Farside Investors and SoSoValue. Fidelity’s FBTC led the exodus with $276.7 million in redemptions, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price falling below $110,000 for the first time in several months. Outflows persisted through September 25, reaching $253.4 million, with FBTC again seeing the largest withdrawals at $114.8 million. BlackRock’s IBIT stood out as the only ETF to attract new investments, bringing in $79.7 million, highlighting a divided institutional reaction to the market’s turbulence Farside Investors [ 1 ].
These ETF outflows signal a broader change in investor sentiment, as all 12
Bitcoin’s price movement reflected these ETF trends, dropping to a four-week low of $108,700 by late September 25. On-chain data showed significant profit-taking, with long-term holders realizing over 3.4 million BTC—levels typically seen near market peaks. Short-term investors faced the threat of liquidations as the Short-Term Holder NUPL indicator hovered close to zero. Experts cautioned that if Bitcoin fell below the early September low of $107,500, further declines could be triggered by stop-loss selling Glassnode [ 3 ].
Meanwhile, gold continued its upward momentum in 2025, reaching a new all-time high of $3,700 per ounce. Institutional investors increasingly favored gold over Bitcoin, citing its established role as a safe-haven asset. Gold’s 39% gain for the year outpaced Bitcoin’s 24% rise, with analysts attributing this divergence to Bitcoin’s higher volatility and regulatory headwinds. Bitcoin analyst Joe Consorti observed that gold typically leads Bitcoin by roughly 100 days, suggesting Bitcoin could rally in the fourth quarter if macroeconomic trends are favorable Joe Consorti [ 4 ]. Gold proponent Peter Schiff argued that Bitcoin’s 16% underperformance relative to gold since 2021 reflects a shift in capital toward traditional safe assets Peter Schiff [ 5 ].
The relationship between gold and Bitcoin illustrated broader market forces at play. While Bitcoin’s limited supply and growing institutional interest support its status as a long-term value store, its price remains highly sensitive to economic cycles. Tephra Digital projected that Bitcoin could climb to $167,000–$185,000 if historical patterns with gold and global M2 money supply persist. However, there is an immediate risk of a 15% decline if Bitcoin fails to maintain support between $109,000 and $110,000 Tephra Digital [ 6 ].
Institutional capital flows and regulatory changes have added further complexity to the outlook. Ongoing scrutiny from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regarding crypto treasury activities and the proposed CLARITY Act—which may define Bitcoin as a commodity—have introduced additional uncertainty. Deutsche Bank’s projection that Bitcoin could become a reserve asset by 2030 highlights its inflation-hedging potential, but short-term volatility remains closely tied to macroeconomic and regulatory developments Deutsche Bank [ 7 ].
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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