Here's Exactly How Much the 2026 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Is Expected to Increase Benefits

The most significant update of the year for over 70 million Social Security recipients is just around the corner. In just over two weeks, on October 15, the Social Security Administration (SSA) will unveil the eagerly awaited 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), finally answering the question on everyone’s mind: What will my monthly benefit be in 2026?

This announcement is particularly crucial for older workers, who, according to 24 years of Gallup surveys, depend on their Social Security payments to help meet their financial needs.

Although the 2026 Social Security “increase” will set a new precedent for the 21st century, it will probably still fall short for most beneficiaries.

How Social Security’s critical COLA is determined

The cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security is designed to protect recipients from the effects of inflation. If the prices of goods and services commonly bought by seniors go up from one year to the next, Social Security payments should rise by the same percentage to maintain purchasing power. The COLA is the SSA’s mechanism for helping beneficiaries keep pace with inflation.

During the program’s first 35 years of payments (1940-1974), benefit increases were sporadic and lacked a consistent method. Only 11 COLAs were enacted through special Congressional sessions, including a record 77% increase in 1950.

Starting in 1975, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) became the official measure for annual COLAs. This index tracks over 200 spending categories, each with its own weight, allowing the CPI-W to be reported as a single monthly figure that reflects whether prices are rising (inflation) or falling (deflation) compared to the previous year.

There’s an important detail about how Social Security’s COLA is figured: Only the CPI-W data from the third quarter (July through September) is used in the calculation. Once the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the September inflation numbers on October 15, the SSA will have all the information it needs to announce the 2026 COLA.

If the average CPI-W for the third quarter is higher this year than it was in the same period last year, the percentage difference—rounded to the nearest tenth—becomes the COLA increase for beneficiaries.

A surge in inflation in recent years has led to larger COLAs. US Inflation Rate data by YCharts.

Exactly how much could Social Security’s COLA raise benefits in 2026?

Because Social Security’s COLAs are designed to reflect the inflation that beneficiaries face, the past few years have brought above-average increases.

After a historic surge in the U.S. money supply during the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation reached its highest level in forty years. As a result, Social Security payments increased by 5.9% in 2022, 8.7% in 2023 (the largest jump since 1982), 3.2% in 2024, and 2.5% in 2025. For comparison, the average COLA since 2010 has been 2.3%.

Between 1988 and 1997, COLAs ranged from 2.6% to 5.4%. If the 2026 adjustment is 2.5% or more, it will be the first time in 29 years—and the first time this century—that COLAs have reached or exceeded 2.5% for five consecutive years. In terms of actual dollars, this means noticeable increases in monthly payments for recipients.

After the BLS released the August inflation report, the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League (TSCL) projected a 2.7% COLA for next year. Meanwhile, independent Social Security and Medicare policy expert Mary Johnson estimated a 2.8% increase for 2026.

If the lower estimate of 2.7% turns out to be correct, here’s how the average monthly benefit would change in 2026 for Social Security’s three main groups of recipients:

• Retired workers: With the average monthly benefit for retired workers surpassing $2,000 for the first time in May, the typical retiree would see their monthly payment rise by $54.22 in 2026, reaching nearly $2,063.
• Workers with disabilities: For the more than 7 million people with long-term disabilities, the average monthly benefit is expected to increase by $42.73 next year, bringing it to about $1,626.
• Survivor beneficiaries: For the approximately 5.8 million survivors of deceased workers, the average monthly payment in 2026 would go up by $42.53, totaling close to $1,618.

Most recipients won’t fully benefit from their 2026 increase

Even though a 2.7% or 2.8% COLA would mark five consecutive years of above-average increases, the reality is that many beneficiaries will see their 2026 boost diminished or entirely consumed by other rising costs.

For example, the 2025 Medicare Trustees Report, released in mid-June, forecasts a double-digit percentage hike in the Part B premium next year. Part B covers outpatient care, and its premium is typically deducted from the monthly benefit for those enrolled in both Social Security and traditional Medicare.

In both 2023 and 2024, the Part B premium increased by 5.9%. According to the latest projections, Part B is expected to jump by 11.5% to $206.20 per month in 2026. This significant rise will offset some or all of the 2026 COLA for a large portion of retired workers.

Additionally, the purchasing power of Social Security dollars has been steadily eroding since the start of this century.

While the CPI-W is a significant improvement over the arbitrary adjustments made before 1975, it still has notable shortcomings. Specifically, the CPI-W measures costs relevant to “urban wage earners and clerical workers,” who are generally working-age individuals not receiving Social Security.

This focus is problematic because 87% of Social Security recipients are 62 or older. Key expenses for seniors, such as housing and healthcare, are not given enough weight to accurately reflect their impact on retirees’ budgets. According to TSCL, this has resulted in a 20% decline in purchasing power for older Social Security beneficiaries since 2010.

So, even with a fifth consecutive strong increase, the 2026 COLA will likely still fall short for most recipients.