BNB “Coin” Finds a “Base”, but This Price Ceiling Must Break for a Possible Rally

BNB price has been consolidating after the October 10 correction. At press time, it is trading near $1,180 — down about 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Yet, the BNB price is still up 27.8%, month on month. The token has been holding a narrow range, which is unusual for BNB, and traders are now watching whether the base near $1,143 can support another push higher.

The hesitation comes after weeks of strong gains followed by profit-taking. Yet, on-chain data suggests BNB may have found a local bottom, but confirmation depends on whether buyers can defend the base and clear the nearest ceiling (resistance).

Profitability and Exchange Flows Hint at Accumulation Near the Base

BNB’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the current market price to the average cost basis of all coins, helps identify when holders are in profit or loss. When it’s high, investors are usually in profit — often near local tops. When it cools off, it shows that selling pressure has eased and a base may be forming.

On October 7, when BNB’s price hit $1,300, the MVRV ratio peaked at 2.40, indicating stretched profit levels. A few days later, during the sharp drop from $1,300 to $1,100 (a 15.7% fall), the ratio bottomed around 2.00. It was a zone similar to the local low from October 4 and preceded a 15% rebound from $1,100 to near $1,300 in just two days.

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BNB MVRV Stabilizes Near A Local Bottom: Glassnode

Now, MVRV has stabilized near 2.10 with the price at $1,160, suggesting that the market may again be forming a local bottom.

At the same time, exchange outflows — which show how many tokens are moving out of exchanges — have increased. Between October 11 and October 15, exchange outflows deepened from –731,363 BNB to –798,780 BNB, a 9.2% rise in outflows (about 67,000 BNB).

This means more holders are moving tokens off exchanges, reducing short-term sell pressure and hinting that accumulation could be happening quietly near the current base. Also, if you are looking for a possible reason for accumulation, this new listing scoop could make sense.

BNB Buyers Still In Control: Glassnode

Combined, these two indicators — cooling profitability and stronger outflows — show that traders may be accumulating between $1,143 and $1,180 (current price), preparing for a possible rebound if support holds firm.

BNB Price Levels to Watch During Consolidation

BNB has found steady support near $1,143, the same level that helped the price recover after the October 10 dip. As long as this level holds, it provides a firm base for another move higher.

On the upside, $1,238 is the first key resistance — a level that has capped the BNB price ascent earlier. Since BNB has already made new highs in recent weeks, the resistance zones above are relatively thin. A move above $1,238, roughly a 4.3% rise from current levels, could confirm renewed bullish control and a possible rally.

BNB Price Analysis:

If that happens, the next BNB price target is $1,318. Breaking that could open the path toward a retest of the previous all-time high near $1,374.

However, if the $1,143 support (the strong base) breaks, the next downside levels to watch are $1,084 and $991. Losing those could signal that the recovery setup has failed.

The Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator — which measures the strength of buyers versus sellers by comparing price action to moving averages — still leans slightly negative. This means sellers have a small upper hand, though that pressure is weakening.

With profitability stabilizing, exchange outflows climbing, and price holding near support, the BNB price looks close to a decision point. A break above $1,238 could confirm the next rally — but until that happens, the move remains in wait.