This Week's Preview: Washington "Crypto Summit" Showdown Approaching, Will Macro "Super Friday" Ignite the Market?

The market last week was far from calm. After the epic leverage liquidation triggered by the macro tariff "black swan" event the previous weekend (October 10), the entire crypto industry spent last week (October 13-17) struggling to recover from the shock. Bitcoin fell from a high of $126,000 to below $107,000 at one point, wiping out billions in capital, and the panic in the market has not yet fully dissipated.

This week, just as the market has stepped out of the "intensive care unit" (ICU), it will immediately face two opposing but equally powerful forces: one is the "internal game" from Washington, which concerns the long-term future of the industry; the other is the "external shock" from the macro economy, which determines the short-term volatility at hand.

This is a week where "long-term regulatory narratives" and "short-term macro data" collide fiercely, as the market tries to find a new balance amidst the ruins.

Focus 1: Washington's Banquet? Crypto Giants Gather in the Senate

This Wednesday, Washington will host the highest-level "closed-door roundtable" in the crypto industry in recent years.

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, CEOs or chief legal officers from almost all leading U.S. crypto companies—including Coinbase, Chainlink, Galaxy, Kraken, Uniswap, Circle, Ripple, and a16z crypto—will meet with pro-crypto Democratic senators.

The topic of this meeting goes straight to the core—"market structure legislation and future development direction."

This is by no means an ordinary PR meeting. After a long regulatory tug-of-war, this is more like a "showdown." Industry giants are trying to present a unified and strongest voice before the regulatory framework is finalized. The outcome of this meeting may directly influence the legislative tone of the United States toward crypto assets (especially DeFi and stablecoins) in the coming years. Long-term investors in the market are holding their breath in anticipation.

Focus 2: Macro Super Friday and the Federal Reserve's "Crypto Debut"

If Washington decides the "long term," then this week's macro data determines the "here and now."

First, due to the government shutdown delay, the U.S. September CPI data originally scheduled for release last week will be announced on the same day as the October Markit Manufacturing PMI data (this Friday, October 24, UTC+8). This creates a rare "macro super Friday."

The market generally expects CPI to remain high, with core inflation still stubbornly sticky. These two data points are the most crucial pieces of the puzzle for the Federal Reserve's next rate-setting meeting, and any numbers that exceed expectations could trigger short-term market panic or euphoria on Friday.

What the crypto industry should be even more wary of is that the Federal Reserve itself is also "entering the game."

This Tuesday (October 21, UTC+8), the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on "payment innovation." The topics are strikingly close to the core of crypto: stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will deliver the opening speech. This is almost the first time the Federal Reserve has so intensively discussed these emerging topics at an official meeting. Are they preparing to embrace, regulate, or "incorporate" them? Waller's wording will be an important indicator for interpreting future regulatory attitudes, especially stablecoin policy.

Focus 3: Earnings Season and Internal Market Selling Pressure

Beyond the main themes of regulation and macroeconomics, two "noise sources" are equally noteworthy.

First, the earnings season in both China and the U.S. is reaching its climax. This week, Tesla, Intel, Netflix, as well as A-share companies CATL and iFlytek, will release their results. In the current fragile market sentiment, the performance of these "bellwether" companies in the tech and AI sectors will directly affect the Nasdaq's trend, which in turn will strongly transmit to the crypto market, where risk appetite is highly aligned.

Second is the most direct "selling pressure test" within the market. According to Token Unlocks data, this week will see a large one-time token unlock, with a total value exceeding $50 million. The pressure on several major tokens is not to be underestimated:

• LayerZero (ZRO): Unlocking about $43.19 million (7.86% of circulating supply) on October 20 (UTC+8)
• Scroll (SCR): Unlocking about $14.23 million (43.42% of circulating supply) on October 22 (UTC+8)
• MBG By Multibank Group (MBG): Unlocking about $17.04 million (11.97% of circulating supply) on October 22 (UTC+8)

Such intensive unlocking, especially during the sensitive period before macro data releases, will pose a severe test to the liquidity absorption capacity of tokens like ZRO and SCR.

Summary

In summary, this is by no means a calm week.

On Monday (today), a series of data including China's GDP will set the "opening tone" for global risk assets this week; on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve's "payment innovation" meeting will test the boundaries of regulation; on Wednesday, crypto giants will "break through" in Washington; finally, all emotions will be unleashed on Friday with the U.S. "CPI+PMI" data combo.

Investors need to fasten their seat belts—this is a week that will test resolve and is also full of uncertainties.