XRP is once again stirring volatility across the market. The question is whether this is a profit purge, a positioning play, or a classic shakeout before a potential rebound. Whales have scooped up 30 million XRP while Ripple teases a possible $1 billion treasury move. At the same time, broader macro issues such as U.S.–China tensions and a looming government shutdown that has stalled ETF approvals are keeping traders cautious. Even seasoned analysts are starting to signal restraint.
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Over in Solana’s corner, SOL remains trapped below its 200-day EMA, with repeated rejections building bearish pressure toward the $145 level. The question now is whether XRP and Solana are preparing for a deeper drop or an unexpected bounce.
XRP’s EMA Exit Wound: Sellers’ Turf or Buyers’ Bluff?
XRP is struggling at $2.39 and sliding further after losing its grip on the 200-day EMA around $2.60 — a key level that has now turned into resistance. The token has dropped about 5.4 percent over the past week, with repeated intraday rejections near $2.45 showing clear seller dominance. Technically, the trend has weakened since July’s failed breakout near $2.70, with lower highs forming a consistent bearish chain.
Volume adds an interesting twist. It has risen nearly five percent to $2.8 billion — a possible sign of heavy distribution as large holders unload onto retail buyers. Yet whale data shows 30 million XRP accumulated in the past 48 hours, hinting that some smart money may be buying the dip. Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen sold around $120 million worth of tokens, coinciding with a 20 percent wallet outflow spike and fueling fresh fears of insider selling.
Macro factors are amplifying the pressure. Trump’s recent comment that a U.S.–China meeting “may not happen” reignited trade war concerns, sending risk assets lower. Bitcoin is flat near $68,000, while Ethereum’s slip to $2,600 adds further drag. The government shutdown threat has paused more than 16 ETF applications, damping institutional optimism.
Sentiment data reflects the growing caution. The crypto fear and greed index has fallen to 29 from 37 — a clear sign of panic. XRP’s RSI sits near 39, approaching oversold territory. A rebound above $2.50 on strong volume could flip the EMA back into play and target $2.80, but if $2.45 breaks, the next support levels are $2.30 and $2.20. Ripple’s $1 billion treasury hint and recent whale accumulation could provide stability if macro conditions ease.
Solana’s EMA Echo: Rejection Rut and $145 Downside Drag
Solana is facing a similar technical challenge. SOL remains stuck below its 200-day EMA , with every attempted breakout near $200 quickly rejected. Currently trading around $145 and down almost five percent on the day, Solana continues to post lower highs, reinforcing a bearish pattern.
Momentum is weak and volume has thinned out. The 200-day EMA remains a strong resistance zone, while $145 marks an important demand level. A break below this area could open the path to a deeper slide toward $130. Any meaningful recovery would require a strong close above the 200-day EMA supported by higher trading volume. Until then, bears appear firmly in control.
Divergence Decoded: XRP’s Flip Versus Solana’s Fade
Both XRP and Solana are showing strain under macro pressure from U.S.–China uncertainty, frozen ETF approvals, and a wave of risk-off sentiment sweeping through the altcoin market. While XRP’s rising volume hints at accumulation, Solana’s muted activity suggests fading confidence.
The drop in the fear and greed index to 29 highlights the cautious mood across the sector. Whether this divergence turns into a trap for optimists or a setup for a rebound depends on whether whale buying and Ripple’s treasury move can outweigh the macro drag.



