Standard Chartered says bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again 'if this week goes well'

Bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again if the current positive macro and geopolitical developments continue through the week, according to Standard Chartered Bank’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick.

In a new note on Monday, Kendrick said improving trade talks between the U.S. and China have turned last week’s market fear into hope. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated over the weekend that China's rare-earth export controls could be delayed for a year and that China plans to buy substantial quantities of U.S. soybeans for several years in exchange for Washington dropping its earlier 100% tariff threat. The details of the deal are expected to be finalized after the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday.

The easing tensions have lifted sentiment across risk markets, with the bitcoin-gold ratio climbing back to just above pre-Oct. 10 levels, when 100% tariff headlines triggered a selloff , especially in crypto. The bitcoin-gold ratio compares the market cap of bitcoin to that of gold and rises as bitcoin’s market cap grows.

"I will watch for this ratio to break back above 30 to signal an end to such fear," Kendrick said.

He added that another key sign of renewed strength would be fresh inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Kendrick noted that more than $2 billion exited U.S. gold ETFs between Wednesday and Friday last week, saying it would be a strong sign of improving sentiment if even half of that re-entered bitcoin ETFs Monday through Wednesday this week. Bitcoin ETF inflows have lagged behind gold ETFs in recent weeks, he said, and "some catch-up is due."

The next "absolute positive confirmation" would be a fresh all-time high in bitcoin, "as if it comes this would signify the death knell for those hanging onto the halving cycle as a reason for Bitcoin prices to peak now," Kendrick said. "To clarify, I think the halving cycle is dead (ETF flows matter more), but it will take confirmation to convince everyone of this."

Kendrick also noted that Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to bring another 25-basis-point rate cut, which he views as positive for bitcoin — especially as attention shifts to the next Federal Reserve chair and potential implications for Fed independence.

He pointed to a busy week for U.S. tech earnings, with five of the "Magnificent Seven" companies — Microsoft, Meta, and Google reporting on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Crypto companies' Strategy and Coinbase are also due to report this week.

"If this week goes well, bitcoin may NEVER go below $100,000 again," Kendrick concluded.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $114925, up 1.22% in the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s bitcoin price page .