Key support in jeopardy, Bitcoin may face a deep correction
1. Bitcoin Weekly Market Review (10.27~11.02)
• Trend: Surged and pulled back → unilateral decline → slight oversold rebound
• Opening price: 114,551 points
• Lowest price: 106,303 points (Thursday)
• Highest price: 116,381 points (Monday)
• Closing price: 110,530 points
• Weekly change: Down 3.51%, maximum amplitude 9.48%
• Trading volume: $13.938 billions
• Technicals: The weekly K-line closed with a medium bearish candle, "engulfing" most of last week's bullish candle
Bitcoin weekly K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model)

Figure 1
Bitcoin daily K-line chart:

Figure 2
Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart:

Figure 3
In the weekly review on October 26, the author predicted:
1. Currently, there is a need for an oversold rebound on the daily chart. Next week, the price may continue to rise, so keep watching the key area of 114,000~116,000 points; if it encounters resistance and falls back, it will test the support at 106,000 points, and the trend will remain weak and volatile.
2. Resistance levels: The first resistance zone is 114,000~116,000 points, and the second resistance is around 120,000 points.
3. Support levels: The first support is around 106,000 points, and the second support is around 103,000 points.
The trading strategy given in the October 26 weekly review was:
1. Medium-term strategy: The market is currently in a range-bound pattern, the trend is not yet clear, so mainly stay on the sidelines for now.
2. Short-term strategy: Focus on the test results of the key area of 114,000~116,000 points; if there is a resistance signal in this area, enter a short position as planned, set the stop loss near 116,000 points, the first target is around 106,000 points, and close the position if it stabilizes.
Review of actual market performance this week:
This week, Bitcoin showed a "surge and pullback, unilateral decline, bottom rebound" trend. Specifically, after opening flat at the beginning of the week, the price quickly surged, but fell back after reaching the high of 116,381 points; then, it declined unilaterally for three consecutive trading days until it found support at 106,303 points. In the latter half of the week, the market entered a technical rebound phase after being oversold. The actual high of 116,381 and low of 106,303 this week closely matched the key points predicted by the author earlier. The overall rhythm once again confirmed the author's judgment that the market would "remain weak and range-bound."
Review of trading strategies this week:
• Medium-term strategy: Based on the author's forecast of "maintaining a weak range-bound market," no trades were made this week.
• Short-term strategy: Trades were executed this week according to the author's established short-term strategy, and profits were successfully realized.
Based on this week's market performance, the author will comprehensively use multiple technical frameworks to deeply analyze the evolution of Bitcoin's internal structure.
1. As shown in Figure 1, from the weekly chart:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: After this week's adjustment, the two momentum lines continue to move downward, the (negative) energy bars are increasing, and the bearish momentum is gradually strengthening.
Model indicates price decline index: in the process of adjustment
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: Both sentiment indicators are at 0, and the peak value is 0.
Model indicates price pressure index: neutral
• Digital Monitoring Model: No digital signals displayed yet.
The above data suggest: the weekly level is still in an adjustment pattern.
2. As shown in Figure 2, from the daily chart analysis:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: After Sunday’s close, the two momentum lines slowly moved upward after a "golden cross" below the zero axis, gradually approaching the zero axis.
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: After Sunday’s close, both sentiment indicators are around 46.
The above data suggest: the daily level is in an oversold rebound process.
2. Market Forecast for Next Week (11.03~11.09)
1. Bitcoin has been range-bound between 106,000~116,000 points for three weeks. It is expected that this range-bound pattern will continue next week, but as time goes on, the probability of the price falling into a new range of 98,000~106,000 points is increasing.
2. Resistance levels: The first resistance is around 116,000 points, and the key resistance is around 120,000 points.
3. Support levels: The first support is around 106,000 points, the second support is around 103,000 points, and the key support is at 98,000 points.
3. Trading Strategies for Next Week (excluding the impact of unexpected news): (11.03~11.09)
1. Medium-term strategy: If a range-bound decline occurs next week, the author will attempt to establish a medium-term position. For specific strategies, please refer to the link at the bottom of the article.
2. Short-term strategy: Control position size, set stop loss, and operate based on resistance and support levels, buying low and selling high. (Use 60-minute/240-minute as the trading cycle).
• If the price remains in the 106,000~116,000 point range, pay special attention to changes near the upper and lower boundaries of the range.
• If the price pulls back to the 103,000~106,000 point area and shows a bottoming signal, enter a long position as planned, set the stop loss near 103,000 points, target around 116,000 points, and take profit if resistance signals appear near key points.
• If the price rebounds to the 114,000~116,000 point area and shows a resistance signal, enter a short position as planned, set the stop loss above 116,000 points, the first target is around 106,000 points, the second target is around 103,000 points, and take profit if stabilization signals appear near key points.
4. Special Reminders:
1. When opening a position: immediately set the initial stop loss.
2. When profit reaches 1%: move the stop loss to the entry price (break-even point) to ensure the trade will not lose money.
3. When profit reaches 2%: move the stop loss up to the 1% profit level.
4. Tracking: For every additional 1% increase in price, move the stop loss up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in existing profits.
(Note: The above 1% profit trigger threshold can be flexibly adjusted by investors according to their own risk preferences and the volatility of the asset.)
The financial market changes rapidly, and the market fluctuates greatly. The author will dynamically adjust trading strategies at any time. If investors want to get the latest trading views every day, please follow the "Bitpush TG Group" link at the bottom of the article, where you can read the author's daily intraday commentary articles and get the latest trading views as soon as possible.
Author: Cody Feng
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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