News

After the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, Michele stated that the economy is experiencing "a bit of short-term inflation shock," which could actually help accelerate growth. However, he also admitted that he was "gobsmacked" by the Fed's decision. "They tell us not to worry," said the head of JPMorgan's global fixed income division. But he added that he wasn't buying it: "This will have real effects on inflation and ultimately on the labor market." (Bloomberg)

1. The policy interest rate remains unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. Powell stated: No rate cuts without progress on inflation, and internal discussions on the possibility of rate hikes have already begun. 2. Tariffs and energy are creating a "double blow." Inflation cooling has stalled, and short-term expectations are rising. Powell blamed tariffs and high oil prices for seeping into core inflation, and said that a cooling in goods prices will have to wait at least until mid-year. 3. Stability is weakening, and downside risks are emerging. New job creation is at a low level. The Federal Reserve acknowledges downward pressure in the labor market, especially as the oil shock is having a negative chain reaction on employment. 4. The energy crisis is escalating, with Brent crude surpassing $107. The Iran war has led to attacks on multiple energy facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz faces the threat of blockade. The world is facing the most severe energy test in 40 years. 5. AI has yet to boost productivity and is instead pushing up the neutral interest rate through investment. Powell poured cold water: Current macro data shows no contribution from AI; on the contrary, data center construction is pushing up the neutral rate and triggering inflation. 6. Powell stands firm and may serve as "interim chairman." He confirmed he will not resign during the investigation. If a successor is not determined, he will become interim chairman after his term ends, ensuring the independence of the Federal Reserve is not affected by political interference.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 19 that Chris Grisanti, Chief Market Strategist at MAI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, stated: The Federal Reserve's statement makes me firmly believe that the Fed is remaining vigilant. Furthermore, today's statement also leads me to think that the view that rising oil prices mean the Fed will become more hawkish is incorrect. I believe the Fed is more concerned about the negative impact of oil price fluctuations on the economy and may be more inclined to adopt an accommodative policy. The situation here is diverse, and the outcomes are often completely opposite. Therefore, I have revisited my research and decided to continue making prudent investments—just as the Fed does. It is now too late to buy energy stocks or defense stocks. I think it is best to avoid investing in these stocks at the moment.