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After 107 days of ongoing conflict, the United States and Iran have reached a peace understanding, with an agreement set to be signed in Switzerland on June 19. During this period, global energy supplies were disrupted, and crude oil prices once surged past $100 per barrel.On Monday, Brent crude plunged nearly 5% to $83–84 per barrel, marking a roughly three-month low, as expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over supply disruptions.On Monday, the Indian rupee appreciated by 0.7% against the US dollar in a single day, opening at 95.32, reaching an intraday high of 94.95, and closing at 95.11, benefiting from US dollar long positions being closed and improved expectations of external stability.About 50% of India’s crude oil imports, 70% of its liquefied petroleum gas, and nearly 90% of its liquefied natural gas come from West Asia. During the conflict, energy import costs soared, inflationary pressures intensified, and the rupee weakened.India’s exports in March plunged by 7.44% month-on-month to $38.92 billion, with exports to West Asia collapsing by 57.95% to $3.5 billion—cut by more than half compared to the normal monthly average of about $6 billion.Exporters expect India’s trade with West Asia to achieve an order of magnitude leap in the next 2–3 years. The Minister of Commerce and Industry stated that if the peace agreement holds, most trade challenges will be significantly alleviated.

⑴ Germany issued 12-month Bubills on Monday, with a new bond auction size reaching 2.77 billion euros, and a reissue of 1.89 billion euros, absorbing a total of 4.66 billion euros in funds. ⑵ The average winning yield of the reissued portion dropped to 2.331%, lower than the previous 2.366%, but the bid-to-cover ratio plummeted from 1.6 to 1.2, indicating a sharp decline in willingness to chase the rally. ⑶ The average winning yield of the new bond auction rose to 2.478%, significantly higher than the previous 2.366%, with the bid-to-cover ratio staying flat at 1.6 and showing no improvement. ⑷ Divergent yields and low bid-to-cover ratios indicate weakening primary market absorption capacity, a shift towards defensive trading sentiment, and more selective allocations to short-term European bonds. ⑸ Combined with global trade concerns sparked by Trump’s tariff remarks, funds have tended to move from risk assets to highly liquid government bonds. The result of the German bond auction reflects supply and demand imbalances as risk-aversion sentiment intensifies.