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BlockBeats News, April 20, the core conflict in the market has shifted from a single geopolitical dispute to a dual pull between "policy path uncertainty + spillover effects from war." On one hand, the Federal Reserve remains highly cautious regarding the interest rate path, with both Waller and Daly clearly tying decisions to inflation and conflict outcomes, indicating that policy cannot provide a clear easing anchor. On the other hand, the White House hopes to reshape market expectations for future interest rate cuts through a "balance sheet reduction + rate cut hedging" framework, resulting in a typical divergence between policy guidance and current reality. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz has reverted from a brief reopening back to blockade, with actual military friction and the absence of ship passages. The US releases strategic reserves and Iraq signals supply recovery, essentially to hedge supply shocks, but these steps cannot remove the risk premium on shipping. Negotiation signals are also chaotic: the US advances talks, Iran denies participation, and military escalation together turns "ceasefire" from a stable expectation into a short-term tactical tool. As a result, cross-market capital flows have become noticeably misaligned: energy and transportation risks are pushing inflation to remain sticky, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to shift course in the short term, while political factors meanwhile reinforce easing expectations, leading to a divergence between the expected path of interest rates and the actual liquidity environment. Under this structure, risk assets are not simply under pressure but instead enter a phase of volatility and repricing characterized by "liquidity contraction + expectation support", with the market relying more on event-driven dynamics. Returning to the crypto market, BTC structurally maintains range-bound volatility, with a clear high-intensity liquidation and liquidity accumulation zone around 78,000 above, and continuous support appearing in the 72,000–73,000 range below, indicating frequent position rotation within the range. Against the backdrop of unresolved macro uncertainty and a split policy path, BTC essentially remains an indicator of risk appetite: if energy conflicts escalate further and push inflation expectations higher, upper liquidity will become a bull trap; conversely, if negotiations make real progress and suppress risk premiums, capital would then have conditions to retest the high-liquidity zone.

Most Chinese concept stocks fell, with XPeng Motors down about 2%, Bilibili down about 1%, and JD.com down about 1%.

```htmlAccording to Golden Ten Data on April 20, People's Finance News reported on April 20 that Zhangyuan Tungsten announced its long-term procurement prices for the second half of April 2026 as follows: 55% black tungsten concentrate: 885,000 yuan/standard ton; 55% white tungsten concentrate: 884,000 yuan/standard ton; ammonium paratungstate (national standard zero grade): 1,350,000 yuan/ton.```