News

Golden Ten Data reported on April 20 that UK-based maritime analytics company Windward released a report on the 19th stating that after Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz, it has once again closed it. In the past 36 hours, 35 vessels have turned back while attempting to exit the strait. According to the report, after Iran announced the reopening of the strait on the 17th, vessel reactions were relatively cautious on that day. On the 18th, traffic through the strait was initially sparse but then rapidly increased, with ships rushing to pass through before the situation deteriorated. A total of 35 vessels passed through the strait that day, including 8 inbound (comprising 4 oil tankers, 2 bulk carriers, and 2 other cargo ships) and 27 outbound (including 8 oil tankers, 3 bulk carriers, 15 other cargo ships, and 1 passenger ship).

On April 20, Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, stated that many market participants have accepted the narrative of a weakening dollar. We continue to see reasons for potential upside. We believe that capital-friendly tax policies, deregulation, and enhanced relative returns on U.S. investments may support sustained demand for dollar-denominated assets. If foreign direct investment continues to strengthen and capital flows favor the U.S., the dollar could strengthen even if many investors expect otherwise. In our view, this is another example of how consensus thinking may overlook the full implications of an innovation-led, investment-driven cycle.

Golden Ten Data reported on April 20 that, according to a research report from CITIC Securities, Federal Reserve Governor Milan and three other economists recently jointly published a working paper titled "A User’s Guide to Reducing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet." The structure of this paper is similar to the previously popular "A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." This paper challenges the conventional view that it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to make significant reductions in its balance sheet, arguing that reserve demand is largely determined by the regulatory environment. It suggests that by adjusting the regulatory framework, curbing precautionary motives, and addressing other sources of reserve demand, it is possible to reduce the balance sheet without causing unexpected market pressures. Monte Carlo simulations estimate the potential space for reduction ranges from $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. We believe the "balance sheet reduction guide" is practically feasible to some extent, though some options may be somewhat idealistic.