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Odaily reported that a recent paper by researchers from London Business School and Yale University points out that prediction market accuracy is mainly driven not by "the wisdom of the crowd," but by a small number of informed traders. The research shows that only about 3% of accounts contributed to a majority of price discovery, were more effective at predicting outcomes, responded to news, and improved market pricing accuracy. The paper also notes that most other participants contributed most of the trading volume, but their trades contained limited information and their losses often flowed to the informed traders. The study argues that prediction market accuracy is better described as "the wisdom of the informed minority."

Glonghui, April 27 — According to a recent research report released by the independent investment research firm BCA Research, the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom is gradually entering its late-stage cycle, with a rapid surge similar to the internet bubble era possibly just ahead. BCA had already warned of this AI melt-up risk in its 2026 outlook report and believes that this rally could push the U.S. stock market up as much as 30%, potentially driving the S&P 500 index past the 9,200-point mark. The so-called “melt-up” refers to a sharp market surge driven by sentiment and momentum rather than fundamentals, which is often the final frenzy before a crash.

According to ChainCatcher, Blockchain Capital partner Spencer Bogart posted on X that the total trading volumes of Kalshi and Polymarket are almost equal, both at around $12 billion (Kalshi at $12.29 billion and Polymarket at $12.22 billion). Excluding sports trading, Polymarket's non-sports trading volume reached $7.5 billion, while Kalshi's was only $1.6 billion. Although the two have different positions within the prediction market space, it is strange that they are still classified under the same category.