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Bitcoin price is approaching a key technical level, currently around $73,000. If it breaks through $74,000 with strong trading volume, it could push the price toward the previous support level at $80,000. Tokens such as PEPE, BONK, and PENGU have surged more than 10%, driving the Altcoin Season Index to 48. The total market capitalization of the non-Bitcoin crypto market is approximately $1.1 trillions. The Relative Strength Index indicates an overbought signal, suggesting a possible pullback before a broader breakout in the altcoin market.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its March interest rate decision. Against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict, not only is the Australian dollar leading among non-US currencies, but the Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to continue raising rates. Where does this unique confidence come from?

⑴ Trump advisor Peter Navarro stated in a report released on Monday that curbing Iran could lead to a significant drop in crude oil prices, as the threat posed by Tehran has resulted in a “terror premium” phenomenon, causing global oil prices to rise continuously for decades. ⑵ In a 13-page report, Navarro wrote that tensions with Iran have added a premium of $5 to $15 per barrel to crude oil prices. The market is adjusting prices by assessing the risk of attacks or disruptions to the Hormuz Strait, a key oil transportation channel. ⑶ The report aligns with the Trump administration’s tough stance on Iran. It argues that geopolitical risks related to Iran have artificially pushed up oil prices for decades, and therefore, taking a hard line against Tehran is seen as a long-term economic benefit. ⑷ The report states that weakening Iran’s ability to threaten regional energy infrastructure or shipping routes could reduce or eliminate the geopolitical premium included in oil prices. “In this scenario, oil prices are likely to return to equilibrium levels, and under current supply conditions, could be well below $60 per barrel.” ⑸ This viewpoint was released as Brent crude oil has surpassed $105 per barrel, up about 50% from before the conflict erupted. Navarro’s report provides an economic argument for the Trump administration’s tough policy on Iran, linking military action to a long-term downward trend in oil prices.