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1. The U.S. job market has long exhibited a subtle balance of “low hiring, low layoffs”: stricter immigration policies have reduced labor supply, which precisely offsets weak labor demand. However, recent indicators show that this balance may be shifting in a more positive direction. 2. The nonfarm payrolls report for May, set to be released on Friday, is highly anticipated. The report is expected to show 85,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. Compared to the state of the labor market at the end of last year, this would be a robust result. 3. In the first four months of this year, the average monthly increase in employment was about 76,000—while not strong, it is significantly better than last year's figure of less than 10,000. More importantly, this growth rate is far above the "break-even" line required to prevent the unemployment rate from rising—a line that has dropped to near zero, the lowest in 65 years. 4. The latest data is encouraging: in April, job openings hit a two-year high and, for the first time since June last year, exceeded the number of unemployed people; ADP private sector employment increased by 122,000, the largest rise since January last year. These signals suggest the job market may be transitioning from “low hiring” to a more active state. 5. Economists point out that cyclical employment bottomed out last summer and autumn, and increases in job openings usually lead to more hiring and job-hopping, forming a positive cycle. So far, there is no evidence showing AI is causing widespread unemployment, and past data may be revised up, in contrast to the trend of significant downward revisions in recent years. 6. For the new Federal Reserve chair, Walsh, current job growth both relieves the pressure to cut rates and is not fast enough to trigger inflation fears—making it a “golden balance point.” However, vigilance is still required regarding the global energy crisis, an AI bubble, and the potential impact of new technologies on employment.

According to Jinse Finance, on June 5, Trader T monitoring showed that the US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of 18.87 million US dollars yesterday.

(1) Despite the surge in global energy costs due to the Middle East conflict, Thailand’s inflation eased in May. Government data show that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.79% year-on-year last month, lower than April’s 2.89% and below market expectations of 3.23%. Core inflation increased from 0.83% to 0.92%. In recent months, Thailand's inflation has climbed steadily, gradually emerging from a year-long deflation.(2) Due to Thailand’s heavy reliance on crude oil imports from the Middle East, rising energy prices may be transmitted to transportation, production, and business costs. The Bank of Thailand stated in its latest report that economic activity in April slowed compared to the previous month, mainly because of the Middle East conflict; the number of inbound foreign tourists and tourism revenue continued to decline, partly due to higher fuel costs leading airlines to reduce flights, and the number of tourists from the Middle East and Europe remained subdued.(3) Economists expect that energy prices will remain the main driver of inflation in the short term. DBS Group pointed out that the increase in domestic fuel costs in May drove up inflation, and businesses may pass part of the cost on to consumers. Last month, the Thai government’s economic planning agency raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 2.0%-3.0%, citing higher energy and production costs tied to the conflict.