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⑴ Palm Oil: In the short term, palm oil prices are supported by external crude oil movements and capital sentiment, leading to a price increase and a higher price floor. Canada has reduced its forecast for the 2026/27 new season canola seed production by 12%, prompting a rise in canola prices. Domestic rapeseed oil is currently discounted by 300 yuan/ton in the spot market, with relatively strong prices, and pre-holiday restaurant and gift box stocking ahead of the May Day holiday has outperformed soybean oil and palm oil. From a spot market perspective, domestic inventories of the three major edible oils are ample, with over 10 million tons of soybeans expected to arrive in May, factory operation rates increasing, and soybean oil stocks likely to further accumulate. With a short holiday approaching next week, there is hedging and risk-aversion demand, so a price correction cannot be ruled out. In the spot market, Guangdong 24-degree palm oil fell by 60 yuan to 9,640 yuan, soybean oil fell by 30 yuan to 8,890 yuan, while genetically modified rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose by 50 yuan to 10,250 yuan.⑵ Soybean Meal: This season, domestic soybean arrivals will hit a historic high for the same period (May–June both expected above 11 million tons), with a significant year-on-year increase in soybean meal inventories. On the demand side, deep losses in the livestock sector are evident, resulting in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand overall. Short-term market fluctuations may occur due to plant shutdowns and logistics disruptions, but in the mid-term, as more Brazilian soybeans arrive and inventories accumulate, combined with no signs of demand recovery, market weakness is likely to persist. U.S. soybean planting weather and China-U.S. trade trends require continuous monitoring, but globally relaxed inventories limit upward price movement.⑶ Corn: The fact that northern port corn inventories remain relatively low year-on-year is the main reason for the strong trend in corn prices. However, government grain auctions have been stepped up, and wheat and rice auctions are exerting some downward pressure on corn prices. On the demand side, there is a divergence: feed demand is weakening as mainstream livestock product prices decline and feed mills and farms are less motivated to stock up, but strong demand from deep-processing industries persists. In the short term, corn prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, but the upside may be limited.⑷ Live Hogs: After a sharp spike, live hog futures prices have turned weak in recent days, confirming that the previous rebound in live hog prices was a short-term phase correction rather than a trend reversal. Supply pressures remain, but the gradual decline in slaughter weights indicates that the industry is beginning to downsize on the supply side. Short-term short positions are possible, but the downside is limited, so risk controls are necessary. Watch the pace of slaughter, slaughter weights, and the rate at which productive sow stock is reduced in the coming period.⑸ Eggs: The egg market is currently in a transitional phase, mainly driven by higher feed costs and marginal relief in supply pressures. Corn and soybean meal price rises have directly pushed up the cost of laying hen farming, with the feed cost per jin of eggs rising to around 3.5 yuan. On the other hand, although the inventory of laying hens remains high, the worst period may have passed. As a result, the logic for egg prices is that costs provide support, supply decreases, and demand increases, so prices are expected to rise moderately, although the large base stock limits the upside.

Bitcoin price retests the February high near 80 thousand, currently consolidating slightly below that level. BTC options data shows changes in positions, volatility expectations, and market sentiment. (glassnode)

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi launched a regional shuttle diplomacy tour on Friday, covering Pakistan, Oman, and Russia. According to Iran's official news agency IRNA, the main focus of this visit is "to conduct bilateral consultations on the current regional situation and the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel." The statement made no mention whatsoever of any hints at a second round of US-Iran talks, creating a sharp contrast to the market’s previous expectations for negotiations.Pakistani officials are actively playing the role of mediator, trying to facilitate a second round of ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran. However, so far, only Pakistan and Iran have confirmed meetings with both parties, and there remains no signal as to whether the US side is willing to return to the negotiating table. There is a fundamental gap between unilateral shuttle diplomacy and bilateral talks, and an institutional framework for a ceasefire is still far from being established.Oman, serving as the traditional secret communication channel between the US and Iran, is included in the itinerary, leaving a glimmer of cautious anticipation in the market. However, Russia’s appearance in this diplomatic arrangement is even more notable—Tehran’s parallel engagements with major Eastern powers other than China seem more aimed at strengthening its diplomatic backing rather than paving the way for compromise.This diplomatic movement must be interpreted in contrast with US Secretary of Defense Hegseth's setting of the minefield red line on the same day. As the US further tightens its military options, Iran chooses to expand the scope of its diplomatic activities. The misalignment of both sides’ operational logic means that the conflict is only likely to persist with high volatility rather than converging linearly.The market’s recent retreat of the risk premium based on "ceasefire expectations" has been invalidated. If there is still no timetable or venue confirmed for direct US-Iran talks after Araghchi’s visit, crude oil and shipping insurance pricing will be forced to re-incorporate longer-term risks of a strait blockade, while the window for Pakistan’s mediation is likely to close quickly due to the deep rift in the two parties’ positions.