News

(1) Asia purchases approximately 80% of the oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this strait triggers a shock to global energy supply, prompting Asian policymakers to adopt increasingly urgent unconventional measures to support their economies. Multiple national currencies have fallen to record lows, and the pressure has already forced interest rates higher.(2) India has urged its citizens to abandon overseas travel and refrain from purchasing gold to protect the rupee. The Prime Minister has even reduced his own motorcade to save fuel. Meanwhile, some banking officials believe the Reserve Bank of India is spending 1 billion US dollars daily to support the rupee at its historical low.(3) Indonesia unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday to support the rupiah at its record low, while also strengthening controls on commodity exports to ensure revenues remain in the country and are converted to local currency. The Philippine central bank has raised rates, and market discussions suggest that soaring inflation may prompt an interim rate hike before next month's meeting.(4) BlackRock’s Head of Asia-Pacific Global Fixed Income remarked that the number of rate increases needed to truly encourage capital inflows could be quite substantial, but these hikes could ultimately inflict significant damage on the domestic economy.(5) The rupiah slid again just a day after the rate hike, and the stock market also declined. S&P warned that Indonesia's plan to centrally control commodity exports could harm exports, squeeze government fiscal revenues, and weaken the balance of payments. Analysts point out that such state interventionism is unlikely to encourage people to invest.(6) The Reserve Bank of India's forward dollar commitments have surpassed 100 billion US dollars, eroding the buffer provided by the total 700 billion US dollars in reserves. Some analysts believe that once reserves become the focus of market attention, visual effects are crucial. India, Indonesia, and the Philippines still have room to raise rates and the ability to use reserves, but even if the strait reopens, investors are unlikely to return quickly.

Golden Ten Data reported on May 21 that China National Fisheries Corporation stated during a special investor survey that geopolitical tensions do indeed transmit through international oil prices, putting periodic upward pressure on fuel costs in the industry. Fuel costs account for about 30% of the company's fishing costs, a relatively high proportion. As of now, the average purchase price of fuel for the company's production and operations has risen by 7% compared to the same period last year, resulting in a corresponding increase in fuel costs. However, the company has a dual hedging capability with its own fuel supply fleet and offshore refueling services, which can effectively offset part of the impact from rising oil prices, making the overall risk manageable.

(1) Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal stated that despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, India remains an attractive investment destination and advocates strengthening economic cooperation with the United States to build resilient supply chains. He pointed out that the current global environment provides an "excellent opportunity" for the two countries to deepen economic collaboration in manufacturing and innovation-led sectors.(2) Goyal said, "India can provide scaled support for US innovation," and revealed that in the past six months, investments by the US industrial sector in India have exceeded $60 billion. At the same time, he ruled out the possibility of taking immediate action to restrict imports of non-essential goods, even though the rupee faces pressure against the dollar and crude oil prices remain high due to ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts. He stated, "There are no plans to reduce imports of non-essential goods."(3) Regarding the recent fluctuations of the rupee, Goyal indicated that the government is closely monitoring developments, with departments working in coordination and considering several measures, but he did not disclose specifics. He concluded by saying that "the global situation is quite severe," with uncertainties arising from geopolitical tensions and turmoil in international markets.