ETF Outflows and Federal Reserve Uncertainty Challenge Bitcoin’s $107K Support Level

In late September 2025, Bitcoin slipped into a downward trend, dropping to $111,000 as the $107,000 mark became a key area for buyers. Over the week, Bitcoin lost 5% of its value, mirroring overall market weakness, and September 21 alone saw $1.6 billion in crypto derivatives wiped out. This wave of selling matched significant withdrawals from spot

ETFs, with $360 million leaving these funds on September 22. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund accounted for $277 million of those outflows. These developments pointed to a shift in market mood, with the fear and greed index solidly in the fear range.

From a technical standpoint, the $107,000 price level emerged as a vital support. If Bitcoin fell below this point, it risked sliding further to $105,000, but holding above it could spark renewed buying. Historically, $107,000 has served as a psychological threshold, and its significance as a potential base for institutional investors was heightened by the broader market backdrop. Earlier in the year, corporate treasuries had fueled Bitcoin’s rally, but that momentum appeared to be waning. Public companies held about 5% of all Bitcoin in circulation, yet a quarter of these firms now had market values lower than their crypto assets, raising alarms about possible liquidity issues.

Regulatory shifts further complicated Bitcoin’s prospects. The SEC’s recent green light for the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF—which allows investment in assets beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum—hinted at a more open regulatory stance, but the ETF sector remained turbulent. The $360 million in Bitcoin ETF withdrawals reflected investor caution, especially as the market processed the Federal Reserve’s uncertain position on interest rate reductions. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about balancing inflation and employment risks fueled a move away from risk, with leveraged trades intensifying price volatility.

Investors were paying close attention to how institutional interest and macroeconomic trends interacted. The expiration of $23 billion in Bitcoin and

options on September 25 brought additional short-term price swings, while Bitcoin’s NVT (Network Value to Transaction) ratio climbed to record highs, suggesting the asset might be overvalued. Still, experts pointed out that steady buying at $107,000 could help stabilize prices, especially if ETF inflows picked up again. The ProShares Ultra ETF’s strong showing—even with its higher fees—indicated that institutional appetite for crypto assets remained strong Invezz [ 3 ], which could also benefit Bitcoin.

Looking forward, Bitcoin’s direction will depend on three main factors: the Federal Reserve’s decisions on rate cuts, the outcome of pending XRP ETF applications, and the ongoing strength of corporate treasury demand. While the $107,000 support level provides a short-term foundation, the combination of large-scale liquidations and corporate balance sheet concerns points to continued volatility. Analysts stressed that a lasting recovery would require not only holding key support levels but also a return of confidence in both the economic outlook and regulatory environment.