Arthur Hayes warns Tether's Bitcoin and gold bet exposes it to major downside risk
Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes suggests Tether is in the early stages of a massive interest-rate trade, betting that Fed cuts will hurt Treasury income but send Bitcoin and gold higher.
- He argues that a major drop in Bitcoin and gold positions could wipe out Tether’s equity.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that Tether is positioning itself for an upcoming Fed rate-cut cycle by shifting a greater share of its reserves into Bitcoin and gold.
Hayes wrote on X on Saturday that Tether’s most recent attestation suggests the firm is preparing for a rate-cut environment, which would reduce returns on Treasuries but could drive up the price of Bitcoin and gold.
However, the analyst cautioned that a sharp decline in those riskier assets could strain Tether’s equity cushion and reignite long-running questions about USDT’s solvency.
According to the latest reserve report, Tether holds around $181 billion in assets to back USDT. The bulk of this is in cash and liquid securities, including Treasury bills, repo, and money market instruments.
Other holdings include nearly $13 billion in precious metals, close to $10 billion in Bitcoin, and more than $14 billion in secured loans, along with several smaller investment categories.
Tether was recently assigned a “weak” stability rating by SP Global Ratings after boosting its holdings of riskier assets, including Bitcoin, within its reserves. SP noted that this approach increases the likelihood of undercollateralization in the event of heightened crypto market stress.
In response, Tether said the SP’s rating framework is outdated and does not reflect the scale of its daily settlement flows.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 Encounters Houthi Challenges Amidst Growth in Trade and Technology
- Saudi Arabia strengthens regional trade ties with Egypt, aiming to boost 86% of Egyptian firms' trade under Vision 2030, focusing on tech and energy sectors. - Chinese aesthetic tech firm Aphranel showcases innovations at Saudi medical congress, highlighting growing Middle East market integration. - Houthi threats in Yemen persist, raising regional security risks that could hinder Saudi economic ambitions and foreign investment goals. - Saudi-Egyptian investment agreements aim to enhance legal frameworks
"Retail's Digital Revolution: Black Friday's 9.1% Online Spike Signals New Consumer Era" <div>Retail's Digital Revolution: Black Friday's 9.1% Online Spike Signals New Consumer Era</div> 改写： <div>The Digital Shift in Retail: Black Friday Sees 9.1% Surge in Online Sales, Marking a New Age for Shoppers</div>
- U.S. online Black Friday spending hit $11.8B in 2025, a 9.1% surge driven by AI tools and social media campaigns. - In-store traffic fell 3.6% as shoppers spread purchases across extended promotions, while tariffs pushed average prices up 7% despite 1% lower order volumes. - Holiday sales are projected to reach $1.01-$1.02 trillion, reflecting a 3.7-4.2% growth but slower than 2023's 4.3% increase. - Scams targeted 31% of U.S. adults, while grassroots boycotts against Trump-linked retailers emerged, thou
Bitcoin News Today: Surging Institutional Interest Pushes BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF to $70 Billion
- BlackRock's IBIT bitcoin ETF surged to $70.7B in 341 days, generating $245M annual fees as top revenue driver. - U.S. spot bitcoin ETF approval fueled institutional demand, with IBIT capturing 3% of total bitcoin supply. - BlackRock increased its own IBIT stake by 14%, despite $2.34B November outflows deemed "normal" for retail-driven products. - ETF resilience shown through $21.1M November 27 inflow, reinforcing bitcoin's strategic role amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Hyperliquid News Today: Hayes-Hon Dispute Highlights the Rift Between Crypto Fundamentals and Market Hype
- Monad's MON token collapsed 40% in three days, triggering $6M+ liquidations on HyperLiquid as high-FDV projects face volatility risks. - Arthur Hayes criticized MON's 90% locked supply as a "hot potato" scheme, while founder Keone Hon defended its C++/Rust architecture and 1-second finality. - Whale wallets lost $1.9M-$4.17M in leveraged positions, highlighting systemic risks in low-liquidity tokens amid spoofed transfers and declining trading volume. - The debate underscores crypto's infrastructure vs.
Trending news
MoreCrypto prices
More
