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Jinse Finance reported, according to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by January next year is 55.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 21.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 22.3%.

Jinse Finance reported that U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday due to a high volume of corporate bond issuance and the continuation of last week's pessimistic tone in the Treasury market. At that time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell poured cold water on the possibility of further monetary policy easing this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1 may become the longest in history this week, disrupting the release of key economic data. This increases the uncertainty faced by policymakers and investors when assessing the direction of inflation and the weakness of the job market. Kelly Kowalski, Head of Investment Strategy at MassMutual, said: "I think the decline in Treasury yields was too fast and too steep." "The market previously expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates significantly, but Powell poured cold water on those expectations last week... More important than the December meeting, this has raised questions about the significant rate cuts already priced in for next year and the Fed's view on this," she said, adding: "This is largely related to the lack of data."