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BlockBeats News, on September 8, a research report from CITIC Securities stated that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August weakened again. The July unemployment rate to three decimal places rose to 4.248%, and the August unemployment rate to three decimal places increased to 4.324%. The one-decimal unemployment rate recorded 4.3%, in line with market expectations. The increase in non-farm employment in August was significantly below expectations, with both government and private sectors weakening. In addition, this week’s U.S. employment data, such as ADP and PMI employment sub-indices, also weakened across the board, confirming previous views: the U.S. job market is not as healthy as the surface data suggests, and the cooling trend in the U.S. job market continues, with the economy continuing to weaken, but not to the point of immediate recession. For the Federal Reserve, job market risks will rise again. CITIC continues its previous view, expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps at the September FOMC meeting, and to cut another 25bps in both October and December.

BlockBeats News, on September 8, TheKobeissiLetter released data analysis indicating that the U.S. long-term unemployment rate is soaring at an alarming pace: in August, the number of long-term unemployed in the U.S. surged to 1.94 million, the highest level since November 2021. Since December 2022, the number of Americans unemployed for 27 weeks or more has more than doubled, and the proportion of individuals unemployed for over 27 weeks has risen to 26.3%, the highest since February 2022. In just 20 months, the U.S. long-term unemployment rate has increased by nearly 10 percentage points, a ratio now higher than in any previous recession except for 2020 and 2008. There is no doubt that the U.S. job market is in decline. In the past four months, excluding the healthcare sector, the U.S. has lost 142,200 jobs, the most since 2020. In May, nonfarm payrolls (excluding healthcare) decreased by 53,000; in June, by 71,800; and in August, by 24,800. In the past 25 years, such a rapid decline after several years of growth has always coincided with the onset of a recession. The rest of the private sector employment has also contracted, and the U.S. job market is much weaker than it appears.