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 according to analysis by UBS, the employment data released this week reveals potential weakness in the U.S. labor market, which could serve as a basis for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates early next year. Affected by the government shutdown, data delayed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that non-farm payrolls increased by only 64,000 in November, remaining basically flat compared to April. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has continued to rise in the latter part of this year, currently reaching 4.6%. These data depict a picture of economic pressure at the end of the year. For example, the number of people involuntarily working part-time in November reached 5.5 million, an increase of 909,000 from the previous month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics explains that these people prefer full-time work but are forced to work part-time due to reduced hours or inability to find full-time positions. In addition, the youth unemployment rate rose month-on-month to 16.3%, and the number of people unemployed for less than five weeks reached 2.5 million in November, an increase of 316,000 from September. This indicates that new entrants and job changers in the labor market are facing difficulties in finding stable positions. Although the full employment report for October was not disclosed, this week’s data confirms that federal government employment decreased by 162,000 in October. Paul Donovan, UBS’s Chief Economist, pointed out in a report to clients that these data “sound multiple alarms.” He added that due to the government shutdown exacerbating the low survey response rate of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the quality of the data itself should be treated with caution. However, Donovan also stated that the report does not raise excessive concerns about the resilience of U.S. consumers, as employment in the food service industry continues to grow, indicating that the trend of entertainment consumption is still ongoing. Nevertheless, the health of the labor market may have enough hidden concerns to justify a “precautionary rate cut” by the Federal Reserve next year.

PANews, December 18 – Jeff Dorman, Chief Investment Officer at Arca, stated that there remains a significant disconnect between bitcoin as an investment target and the overall growth of the blockchain ecosystem. Stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), and the DeFi sector are growing rapidly, but discussions on Wall Street and in the fintech sector are more focused on how to use stablecoins and RWA for issuance and fee collection, rather than on investment itself. Meanwhile, most investors' attention remains on bitcoin, resulting in less research and discussion on token value on Wall Street. Although some institutions have begun to delve into token research, such as Cantor Fitzgerald's reports on certain tokens, overall, token investment has yet to become mainstream, and related sales and promotion efforts have not gained traction. Many new investors mistakenly believe that investing in bitcoin is enough to capture the growth opportunities of blockchain, when in fact bitcoin is not directly linked to the growth of decentralized finance, stablecoins, or RWA in the blockchain sector. Nevertheless, bitcoin continues to dominate capital flows and price trends. It is still unclear when this situation will change, but investors generally tend to enter the market during price pullbacks, overlooking the potential value in other areas of blockchain.

BlockBeats News, December 18, according to analysis by UBS, employment data released this week reveals potential weakness in the US labor market, which could provide grounds for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further early next year. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan noted in a report to clients that this data "rings alarm bells in several areas." Due to the government shutdown exacerbating the low response rate to the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys, the quality of the data itself should be treated with caution. Elyse Ausenbaugh, Chief Investment Strategist at JPMorgan Wealth Management, agreed that the October data was particularly "concerning." She stated that this report reinforces the market's view of the Federal Reserve's current policy path. The "insurance" rate cuts over the past few months were prudent moves that have brought rates back to a more neutral level. She believes that a further rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 may be appropriate, but for now, the economy remains stable and the Federal Reserve can afford to patiently observe before taking further action. (Golden Ten Data)