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According to data compiled by Jefferies, the bottom-up target prices aggregated by sell-side analysts indicate that the earnings growth of S&P 500 constituent companies will accelerate year by year until the end of 2027. Over the next three years, earnings are expected to achieve double-digit growth consecutively, a scenario that historically coincides with above-average returns for the S&P 500 index. Despite concerns about excessive market concentration and overvaluation, strong corporate earnings—the key pillar supporting the three-year bull market in equities—remain solid.

According to TechFlow, on December 16, as reported by Golden Ten Data, well-known Wall Street bear Peter Berezin stated that at the beginning of 2026, as investors shift from technology stocks to non-technology stocks and from growth stocks to value stocks, the stock market decline may still be limited. He expects that this series of factors will ultimately lead the S&P 500 index to close at 5,280 points in 2026, down 23% for the year, while the Nasdaq Composite Index will fall by 31%. In addition, as the US dollar weakens, the Japanese yen will appreciate significantly, with the USD/JPY exchange rate expected to reach 115 by year-end. Gold prices will hit new historical highs. Growing concerns about a US economic recession will prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026. By December 2026, the federal funds rate will fall to 2.25%, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will drop to 3.1%.