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ChainCatcher news, K33 pointed out in its latest analysis report that after several consecutive months of selling pressure, bitcoin has entered the most extreme weekly oversold zone in its history. Previously, the selling pressure mainly came from long-term holders and institutional investors, but recently these pressures have begun to ease, and the market is showing signs of temporary stabilization. K33 noted that historical data shows that after similar extreme bearish cycles, bitcoin often experiences a temporary rebound. The bottom formation phase still requires time, but extreme oversold conditions, deleveraging in derivatives, and the recovery of long-term supply together indicate opportunities for a temporary rebound. However, the options market shows strong bearish sentiment, with investors paying high premiums for downside protection, and negative funding rates indicate that the market's demand for deleveraging long positions or establishing short positions continues to exist.

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(1) Regarding Shanghai copper, geopolitical conflicts have triggered risk aversion, with funds flowing preferentially into the US dollar, causing copper prices to resonate and run weakly. Global copper inventories remain high, supply is becoming more abundant, and the slow recovery in demand provides limited support. The main contract price has returned to the 101,000-102,500 yuan/ton range, with short-term expectations of range-bound fluctuations. (2) Regarding zinc, the market is concerned that rising oil prices may delay interest rate cuts, and the strengthening US dollar is putting pressure on zinc prices. Due to the situation in the Middle East, European natural gas prices have surged, raising the risk of reduced zinc smelting capacity. Zinc prices continue to run weakly. (3) Regarding precious metals, risk-averse funds are flowing preferentially into the US dollar rather than gold, causing precious metal prices to be under pressure and run weakly. If the conflict escalates and affects the stability of the global financial system, gold may regain buying interest. It is expected that gold prices will fluctuate in the short term. (4) Regarding lithium carbonate, geopolitical conflicts have impacted energy storage projects in the Middle East, causing short-term disruptions in demand rhythm; in the long term, rising energy prices will boost global energy storage demand. The downward trend in the market is clear, and caution is needed against the risk of inertia-driven declines. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines.