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(1) Crude Oil: Trump ordered the sinking of any Hormuz minesweepers. Iran reportedly activated Tehran's air defense system to intercept "hostile targets" and denied any airstrikes. The US is deploying its strongest forces in the Middle East. The Israeli Defense Minister has set attack targets in Iran, and intense statements among the three parties are increasing, further raising uncertainty in negotiations. Geopolitical factors are once again influencing the markets. Light positions are advised, and buying on dips may be appropriate.(2) Fuel Oil: During the war, infrastructure and oil facilities in the Middle East have been attacked, oil-producing nations have cut production, and China relies heavily on imports of high-sulfur fuel oil, with Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 20% of imports. The second round of US-Iran talks yielded no results, with significant news flow; in the short term, expect high volatility.(3) Glass: The North China market was basically stable today; manufacturers had varying shipment levels, and overall production and sales improved compared to earlier periods. The East China market saw minor consolidation, with average shipments and weak downstream enthusiasm—mainly just-in-time purchases. Float glass production lines did not change much during the week; trading was subdued, shipments were poor, and industry inventory continued to increase by 0.5%, up 17.45% year-on-year. Overall, low supply provides some price support, but high inventory digestion pressure persists, so a wide range of price volatility is expected.(4) Soda Ash: The domestic soda ash market fluctuated today, with mostly stable prices and minor changes. Soda ash plants are operating stably, with reductions set to resume soon. Downstream demand remains lukewarm, sourcing as needed. Domestic soda ash output stands at 798,400 tons, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 84.30%. Total inventory on Thursday was 1,867,600 tons, up 4,800 tons from Monday. Overall, recent macro expectations are strong, the market lacks obvious momentum, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely.(5) Caustic Soda: Taking Shandong as the reference, prices at some enterprises in Shandong continued to decline today, but shipments to downstream main buyers remain unchanged. The short-term market appears weak; however, liquid chlorine prices continue to fall, and the short-term decline in liquid caustic soda is likely limited. On a weekly basis, the average caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 83.2%, down 1.1% week-on-week. Inventory at national sample enterprises with fixed liquid caustic soda capacity above 200,000 tons stands at 585,500 tons (wet tons), up 4.71% week-on-week and up 39.02% year-on-year.(6) Methanol: Today, Taicang spot price is 3,265, up 10; Inner Mongolia North price is 2,685, up 10. The domestic methanol market fluctuated within a narrow range today, with small increases in coastal and surrounding areas; futures closed up 25 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. Recently, the domestic methanol market has seen stubborn price movements with reduced volatility, with short-term trading ahead of the May Day holiday. Overall, Middle Eastern overseas supply continues to shrink, with expectations for destocking providing some price support. There has been significant news from recent US-Iran negotiations, and intraday volatility is intense. With increased intense US-Israeli geopolitical statements, geopolitical premiums may recover—light positions and long-side trading are advised.

⑴ Palm Oil: In the short term, palm oil prices are supported by external crude oil movements and capital sentiment, leading to a price increase and a higher price floor. Canada has reduced its forecast for the 2026/27 new season canola seed production by 12%, prompting a rise in canola prices. Domestic rapeseed oil is currently discounted by 300 yuan/ton in the spot market, with relatively strong prices, and pre-holiday restaurant and gift box stocking ahead of the May Day holiday has outperformed soybean oil and palm oil. From a spot market perspective, domestic inventories of the three major edible oils are ample, with over 10 million tons of soybeans expected to arrive in May, factory operation rates increasing, and soybean oil stocks likely to further accumulate. With a short holiday approaching next week, there is hedging and risk-aversion demand, so a price correction cannot be ruled out. In the spot market, Guangdong 24-degree palm oil fell by 60 yuan to 9,640 yuan, soybean oil fell by 30 yuan to 8,890 yuan, while genetically modified rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose by 50 yuan to 10,250 yuan.⑵ Soybean Meal: This season, domestic soybean arrivals will hit a historic high for the same period (May–June both expected above 11 million tons), with a significant year-on-year increase in soybean meal inventories. On the demand side, deep losses in the livestock sector are evident, resulting in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand overall. Short-term market fluctuations may occur due to plant shutdowns and logistics disruptions, but in the mid-term, as more Brazilian soybeans arrive and inventories accumulate, combined with no signs of demand recovery, market weakness is likely to persist. U.S. soybean planting weather and China-U.S. trade trends require continuous monitoring, but globally relaxed inventories limit upward price movement.⑶ Corn: The fact that northern port corn inventories remain relatively low year-on-year is the main reason for the strong trend in corn prices. However, government grain auctions have been stepped up, and wheat and rice auctions are exerting some downward pressure on corn prices. On the demand side, there is a divergence: feed demand is weakening as mainstream livestock product prices decline and feed mills and farms are less motivated to stock up, but strong demand from deep-processing industries persists. In the short term, corn prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, but the upside may be limited.⑷ Live Hogs: After a sharp spike, live hog futures prices have turned weak in recent days, confirming that the previous rebound in live hog prices was a short-term phase correction rather than a trend reversal. Supply pressures remain, but the gradual decline in slaughter weights indicates that the industry is beginning to downsize on the supply side. Short-term short positions are possible, but the downside is limited, so risk controls are necessary. Watch the pace of slaughter, slaughter weights, and the rate at which productive sow stock is reduced in the coming period.⑸ Eggs: The egg market is currently in a transitional phase, mainly driven by higher feed costs and marginal relief in supply pressures. Corn and soybean meal price rises have directly pushed up the cost of laying hen farming, with the feed cost per jin of eggs rising to around 3.5 yuan. On the other hand, although the inventory of laying hens remains high, the worst period may have passed. As a result, the logic for egg prices is that costs provide support, supply decreases, and demand increases, so prices are expected to rise moderately, although the large base stock limits the upside.

Bitcoin price retests the February high near 80 thousand, currently consolidating slightly below that level. BTC options data shows changes in positions, volatility expectations, and market sentiment. (glassnode)