News

Golden Ten Data reported on March 30 that Barclays believes the US dollar will remain strong, supported by high recent energy prices. However, the bank expects a broader weakening of the US dollar once Middle East tensions ease over the coming months. According to its estimates, a 10% increase in oil prices drives the US dollar up by 0.5% to 1.0%. Nevertheless, Barclays stated: "Based on our latest forecasts, geopolitical stabilization in the next three months, the policy focus shifting to the domestic US government agenda, and the new leadership of the Federal Reserve may point to some degree of short-term weakness." Barclays predicts that the euro/US dollar exchange rate will reach 1.18 in the next quarter. The bank added that this week the market’s focus is on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, retail sales data, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index, and the latest March employment report.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 30 that, due to rising price pressures from the Middle East energy shock, South Korea's overall inflation rate in March is expected to accelerate. According to the median forecast of 13 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, the benchmark Consumer Price Index is projected to increase by 2.4% year-on-year, up from February's 2.0% growth rate. Economists stated that, as the Middle East conflict continues, soaring oil prices and rising transportation costs are intensifying inflationary pressures. The survey also indicated that, after a 0.3% month-on-month increase in February, the index could rise by 0.6% month-on-month in March. The March Consumer Price Index data will be released on Thursday.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 30 that in early Tokyo market trading, concerns over rising inflation led to a steepening of the Japanese government bond yield curve, with investors selling long-term bonds more aggressively than short-term bonds. According to a recent report by the JPMorgan Japan Market Research team, Japanese government bond yields increased and the yield curve ultimately steepened after oil prices rose due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East. The team stated: “We maintain a bullish stance on the steepening of spot Japanese government bonds.” Team members added that last Friday’s market volatility highlighted “the vulnerability and heightened volatility of the ultra-long-term government bond sector, suggesting that the market should remain cautious about duration risk.” The 2-year Japanese government bond yield remained unchanged at 1.375%, while the 10-year yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 2.385%, hitting an intraday high set last Friday—its highest level since February 1999.