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At the industry level, new directions and paradigms such as video generation models, world models, and physical AI continue to emerge. Innovations like the integration of video understanding and generation, the fusion of language models and multimodal models, and continual learning for models will keep leading the trends in model innovation. We expect the iteration cycle for models to keep shortening, with model companies represented by Anthropic seeing continuous ARR growth, and gradually rolling out in more high-value enterprise scenarios such as finance, law, and healthcare. On the market side, the biggest current challenges are the relatively high global tech stock valuations and concentrated positions. In addition, the potential IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI in the next six to twelve months may impact market liquidity, becoming major events and key observation points for global tech equities. Considering that macro liquidity may marginally tighten in the second half of the year, market performance will rely even more on ongoing realization and verification of earnings. However, as long as the industrial uptrend remains intact, any valuation corrections caused by liquidity shocks will present more opportunities than risks. Meanwhile, the gap between domestic and overseas models continues to narrow, and domestic cloud providers have more room than overseas players to scale up CAPEX investment. As the “domestic models and chips” ecosystem continues to improve, domestic computing power will gain greater flexibility.

The data released by Japan's Ministry of Finance on Wednesday show that the unadjusted trade balance turned to a deficit of 378.6 billion yen in May. Analysts had previously forecast a deficit of 547.6 billion yen. Imports grew by 12.5% year-on-year in May, while exports increased by 17%. The increase in imports was mainly driven by a 55% rise in imports of semiconductors and electronic products, as well as a 48% rise in imports of communication equipment. Both the volume and price of oil imports declined significantly, indicating that, as the Hormuz Strait was essentially closed due to the Iran war, Japan—a country that typically relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil—found other energy sources. According to the trade department, Japan is expected to ensure stable oil supplies until March 2028.

BlockBeats News, June 17 — “Bai Mao Gu Shen” Serenity reposted Mizuho Securities’ latest research report and commented that the recent concentrated sell-off of CPO concept stocks is completely a foolish misjudgment by the market. The Mizuho research report points out that the market’s concerns about delays in the mass production of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and lagging deployment of 800V DC are unfounded; both technological paths are progressing as scheduled, with mass production still expected between 2028 and 2029. Driven by NVIDIA’s CPO switch (3.2T Spectrum-X), for which mass demand is expected in 2027, Mizuho simultaneously raised its shipment forecast for Optical Engines (OE). On the technical side, Mizuho believes that InP DFB lasers remain the long-term mainstream direction for CPO, naming $SIVE as a beneficiary; VCSEL and microLED technology have yet to be fully validated in short-distance and chip-to-chip connectivity scenarios above 1.6T within racks and are unlikely to become mainstream alternatives in the short term. For 800VDC data center deployment, incremental shipments are expected to begin in 2027, with penetration rates increasing further in 2028. The Senior Vice President of NVIDIA’s networking division also publicly denied any delay regarding the Spectrum-X Ethernet CPO switch, confirming that mass production and client deliveries will proceed as scheduled in the second half of 2026.