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BlockBeats News, May 29th. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts this year have been almost entirely erased, with some even contemplating a potential 75 basis point rate hike. Currently, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady through the end of 2026 is 51.9%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut throughout the year is only 0.5%, while the probabilities of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike, 50 basis point rate hike, and 75 basis point rate hike are 37.3%, 9.3%, and 1%, respectively. Furthermore, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in June is 1.1%.

BlockBeats News, May 28th, S3 Partners' latest data shows that the total short interest in the U.S. and Canadian stock markets has surged by nearly $100 billion since the end of April, reaching $2.13 trillion, hitting the highest level on record since 2010. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, the primary broker data, shows that the median short interest as a percentage of market capitalization of S&P 500 index components has climbed to 3%, the highest level since the end of 2011. The Goldman Sachs trading team pointed out that this extreme positioning implies that the next stage of the market's upside momentum may no longer be led by large-cap tech stocks but by a short squeeze-induced rally — especially in sectors that are out of favor and heavily shorted, where the risk of a reversal continues to build. Bearish bets have spread from the information technology sector to various other sectors such as industrials, financials, and energy, with a high concentration of shorts in defensive sectors: the median short interest in the healthcare sector has reached nearly a 30-year peak, while the utilities and consumer staples sectors are approaching historical highs. Goldman Sachs warns that the "right tail risk" in these sectors is significantly increasing. The current sentiment in the U.S. stock market has significantly improved since March, and money has begun to rotate: hedge funds bought into the non-essential consumer goods sector at the fastest pace in two months last week, while the net exposure to consumer staples saw the fastest decline in over five years. Research firm Wolfe Research believes that if geopolitical tensions ease, equally weighted allocations to sectors like non-essential consumer goods, technology, and industrials are expected to benefit further.

On May 28, Weng Xiaoqi, CEO of New Fire Group, participated in a fireside chat at the Bitfire Club exclusive event with Colin, founder of Wu Says Blockchain, and Fu Peng, chief economist of New Fire Group, sharing exclusive insights on the development cycle of the crypto industry. Weng Xiaoqi stated that Ethereum is akin to CUDA (NVIDIA's parallel computing platform), with the developer ecosystem being its core value. "Many people ask why NVIDIA is irreplaceable? Because it has CUDA—a complete development platform that developers cannot do without. The functional attributes of Ethereum are similar to CUDA: everyone develops on it, and users must consume ETH to access everything, forming a complete economic model." However, he admitted that there has been a lack of innovation on-chain in recent years, saying, "There are too few native assets, no effective innovation, and many believers have exited the market." Furthermore, Weng Xiaoqi mentioned that the withdrawal of capital may not necessarily be a bad thing. "After experiencing chaos and silence, we may welcome an explosive moment." He drew a parallel with the history of AI: "When I was studying at Tsinghua, my classmates were researching convolutional neural networks around 2011-2013, which was also the incubation period for Bitcoin. But AI truly became a societal phenomenon during the sudden explosion of ChatGPT two years ago—it had accumulated for a long time, and then one application ignited everything." Weng Xiaoqi indicated that the crypto industry might also be waiting for its own 'ChatGPT' moment. "In the second half of this year, during the World Cup, a large number of predictions may occur on decentralized markets like Polymarket. More broadly, if the traditional financial system faces a round of systemic adjustment, does wealth need a configuration direction that can hedge against single sovereign credit risks? Bitcoin might be the answer." "As a veteran in this industry since 2017, I have always been tearfully waiting for that 'ChatGPT' moment in the crypto space," Weng Xiaoqi said. "After the hot money exits, the true builders will remain."