01:48
After the US-Iran ceasefire, BTC holds steady at $65,000—what is the market betting on before the Federal Reserve decision?BTC has climbed back above $65,000, but what is truly driving the market is not just the price increase. Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has seen three major pieces of news: the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire agreement, helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; the countdown to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has begun; SpaceX has, for the first time in its IPO filing, disclosed holding 18,712 BTC. Judging by market reactions, capital is repricing risk assets. As geopolitical risks ease, international crude oil prices have dropped quickly, leading to a cooling of concerns over another energy shock or a resurgence in inflation. BTC briefly reached 66,992 USDT, moving back above the $65,000 mark, and risk appetite has clearly recovered. However, this round of gains has not come without its price. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $1.32 billion, with long positions accounting for $819 million—over 60%. This indicates the rally was accompanied by intense turnover and capital competition, and that market sentiment remains fragile. At the same time, the long-term logic for institutional funds has not changed. SpaceX disclosed holding 18,712 BTC; Strategy’s total holdings have reached 847,000 BTC; BlackRock BITA Yield ETF is about to launch; and an exchange has received approval for perpetual contract business in the US. On the institutional side, they continue to expand both their allocation to crypto assets and their compliant access points. Structurally, the biggest variable in the market has shifted from geopolitics to the Federal Reserve. The upcoming interest rate decision and Powell’s speech in the early morning will determine whether this rebound is merely a post-risk-release recovery or the start of a new trend. In the short term, the 65,500—66,000 USDT range remains an important battleground for BTC’s bulls and bears. If BTC can continue to hold this area, the market may test the 67,500—68,000 range next; but if the Federal Reserve delivers an unexpectedly hawkish signal, be alert for renewed volatility at higher levels. The current market appears more like a stage of risk appetite recovery driven by sustained institutional positioning and macro events, and over the next 48 hours, the Federal Reserve will provide the key answer.
