Goldman Sachs: If the US core CPI is high in May, the expectation of a rate cut in 2024 will become one
Goldman Sachs predicts that the June dot plot of the Federal Reserve will show two rate cuts in 2024 (less than the three in March), four rate cuts in 2025, and three rate cuts in 2026. If core CPI in May remains high, the expected rate cut in 2024 will be reduced to one. Due to fiscal deficits and strong risk sentiment, terminal rates may remain above neutral rates. In the economic outlook summary, core PCE inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% in 2024. There is no significant expected change in the FOMC statement and Powell's wording.
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