Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnWeb3SquareMore
Trade
Spot
Buy and sell crypto with ease
Margin
Amplify your capital and maximize fund efficiency
Onchain
Going Onchain, without going Onchain!
Convert
Zero fees, no slippage
Explore
Launchhub
Gain the edge early and start winning
Copy
Copy elite trader with one click
Bots
Simple, fast, and reliable AI trading bot
Trade
USDT-M Futures
Futures settled in USDT
USDC-M Futures
Futures settled in USDC
Coin-M Futures
Futures settled in cryptocurrencies
Explore
Futures guide
A beginner-to-advanced journey in futures trading
Futures promotions
Generous rewards await
Overview
A variety of products to grow your assets
Simple Earn
Deposit and withdraw anytime to earn flexible returns with zero risk
On-chain Earn
Earn profits daily without risking principal
Structured Earn
Robust financial innovation to navigate market swings
VIP and Wealth Management
Premium services for smart wealth management
Loans
Flexible borrowing with high fund security
EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation (7.1~7.7): Liquidation intensifies, Asia shorts the US and buys the bottom

EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation (7.1~7.7): Liquidation intensifies, Asia shorts the US and buys the bottom

Odaily2024/07/08 12:02
By:Odaily

Written by: Shang2046

The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation (7.1~7.7): Liquidation intensifies, Asia shorts the US and buys the bottom image 0

Market Week

BTC adjusted more sharply last week, falling 10.87% and fluctuating 16.44%, breaking through the new high consolidation range. The lowest point was $53,400, which was nearly 28% lower than the highest point. Doubts about whether the bull market is still there have further intensified.

We tend to believe that we are still in a bull market structure, but before the US interest rate cut is clear, market liquidity faces unprecedented challenges, coupled with the debt repayment factor of the rapid rise in March this year, there will be a relatively long downward adjustment. Overall, this will make time and space for the bull market in the macro rhythm of the big interest rate cut next year.

Federal Reserve and economic data

Last week, the unemployment data released by the United States was higher than expected. UBS still believes that a rate cut in September is a high probability event, and a soft landing of the US economy may have become a reality. This Thursday, the US CPI for June will be released. If it continues to be lower than expected, the possibility of a rate cut in September will continue to increase.

Funding

All signs show that Asian funds dominated this round of short-selling. They took full advantage of the market news that the German government and Mt.Gox disposed of a total of 190,000 BTC, chose to launch an offensive on Thursday when the US market was closed for the Independence Day, and superimposed the normal window period of the weekend.

First, although Chicago CME occupies the top position in the contract market with a BTC contract holding of $7 billion, Binance’s daily contract trading volume is currently three times that of CME. Together with the top-ranked Bybit, Bitget and OKX, Asian contract exchanges have recorded a total trading volume that is six times that of CME.

Second, in terms of the inflow of US dollar stablecoins, the US compliant stablecoin USDC reversed its decline over the past year and received a total inflow of US$1.378 billion. However, USDT, which has always played a major role in net inflows and is more commonly used by Asian investors, saw a net outflow of US$586 million. This abnormal phenomenon has never happened in the past year.

Driven by the strong inflow of USDC, stablecoins finally received a net inflow of US$570 million last week, a sharp reversal of the net outflow of US$600 million in the previous week.

Third, U.S. spot ETFs achieved net inflows on three of the five trading days throughout the week. On Friday, the second day of the big drop, they saw a net inflow of $143 million on a single day, bringing the total inflow for the week to $237 million.

On the exchanges side, stablecoins added $900 million.

Chip Supply

Short-term investors sold 6,000 BTC at a loss of $520 million on July 5, and the pressure has reached the level of the last wash-out period in August and September last year.

Long-term investors sold a total of 1,000 last week, while miners continued to sell off, reducing their inventory by 2,000. At the same time, exchanges added more than 6,000 BTC to their holdings, totaling 2.975 million, indicating that there is still considerable upward pressure in the short-term market.

BTC on-chain data

BTC on-chain data continued to be sluggish, with new addresses and active addresses rebounding, but the number of transfers continued to decline. Due to the sell-off, the transfer scale increased significantly.

Ecological analysis

Although the crypto market has experienced a sharp correction along with the trend of BTC, the infrastructure ecosystem outside of BTC has shown a good rebound trend: ETHs new addresses, active addresses and transfers are in a rebound state, and ETHs active addresses have shown an upward trend on the 30-day moving average. Solanas new addresses hit a new record high on July 3, and the 30-day moving average continued to maintain a high-speed upward trend. In addition, Solana DEXs trading volume once again exceeded Ethereum this week, becoming the public chain with the largest DEX trading volume on the chain.

EMC BTC Cycle indicator

Like last week, the EMC BTC Cycle bullish indicator is 0.125, and the market is still in a bullish dormant period.

END

EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.

For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund

0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Locked for new tokens.
APR up to 10%. Always on, always get airdrop.
Lock now!