10x Research: Ethereum prices will fall back soon after the spot Ethereum ETF is listed

10x Research stated that the Ethereum ETF application made progress when the US Securities and Exchange Commission requested exchanges to update their 19b-4 application materials on May 20. This development increased the approval probability from 25% to 75%. On May 23, the US SEC approved the application for a listed spot Ethereum ETF, clearing the main obstacle for approval.

In the following seven days, the number of outstanding Ethereum contracts increased by 500,000, driving the outstanding Ethereum futures contracts from $8.8 billion to $13 billion, and the price of Ethereum rose from $3,065 to a high of $3,959;

Since then, we have received more clarification from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which has approved the ETH ETF and will begin trading today. Like all previous cases, from the listing of Bitcoin futures in December 2017 to the listing of Coinbase in April 2021, the listing of Bitcoin ETF based on futures in October 2021, and the listing of Bitcoin ETF based on spot in January 2024, all have caused a pullback shortly after listing.