Fed Chair Powell May Make Hawkish Remarks at Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting
In the coming week, investors' eyes will turn to the annual Jackson Hole central bank meeting, according to Golden Ten. The annual Jackson Hole global central bank meeting has been significant in previous years, bringing together central bankers, economists and financial market participants from around the world. This year, the focus of the symposium is once again on coping with the economic recovery in the wake of the epidemic as well as dealing with the challenges posed by high interest rates and geopolitical tensions. Among other things, Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank's annual meeting will be analyzed verbatim by investors. The current market expectation of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut at the September meeting is now about 25%, while the December rate cut has been almost completely digested. Bank of America believes that market pricing has led to a high threshold for Fed dovishness, but Powell could make hawkish comments. In the 10 days leading up to and following the annual central bank meeting, the dollar traded within a modest range of ±0.5% on average, and FX volatility was similarly subdued. 2022 was a bit of an anomaly, however, with a stronger reaction from hawkish Powell, but it is unlikely to be a repeat of 2022 this time around. As a result, Bank of America doesn't expect the annual Jackson Hole central bank meeting to have much impact on the dollar. Markets have priced in the Fed to cut rates several times this year, so the dollar has been weakening. We don't think Powell will go against market pricing and keep the option of aggressive easing based on pre-September data,” the bank said. FX market positions are now clearer after the recent market turmoil, but hedge funds are still long the dollar, which still suggests some vulnerability to a dovish tone.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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