Asia Colour

Wall street is abuzz with rumors of a downward revision to payroll growth by at least 600k. This would indicate that the US job market was not as robust as the market expected in the past year.

The question now is whether the Fed has been behind the curve. The Fed has delayed rate cuts due to a stronger-than-expected job market and robust economy.

We expect Powell to address this issue during the annual Jackson Hole event. However, we believe Powell will not commit to a decision given there is another month until the Fed’s Sep meeting.

A large downward revision, or an especially dovish Powell, could potentially reverse the 2-week equity rally and push BTC and ETH below support levels.

Regardless of the revision, the Fed seems poised to cut in September. The market is currently pricing in 3.7 cuts in 2024, and 4.5 cuts in 2025.

Trade Idea

Banks have already started to adjust their Fixed Deposit rates lower based on expectations of a rate cut cycle.

12-mth USD Fixed Deposits are paying 3.5 – 4.0% p.a. For the same tenor, you can lock in 9.5% p.a. in crypto cash and carry. This seems particularly attractive, especially if the Fed decides to embark on a much more aggressive cutting cycle.

Index Basis AnnRate(%) Tenor

28MAR25	3333.18	9.39	219
27JUN25	4776.89	9.51	310