QCP Capital: Bitcoin rebounds and breaks through key range, Federal Reserve rate cuts and U.S. elections become key factors in the future

The latest report from QCP Capital indicates that Bitcoin has finally seen the long-awaited rebound. It appears that Powell's speech in Jackson Hole served as a catalyst for breaking through the $58,000 to $62,000 range. A rate cut in September is confirmed, but the extent of the cut remains unclear; therefore, August employment data will be crucial. If rates are cut by 25 basis points, it could be good news; if they're cut by 50 basis points, it may indicate that the Fed is taking emergency action to prevent economic stagnation.

Last night's rebound was primarily driven by spot markets as funding rates remained steady. However, if support at $62,000 holds and as summer vacation comes to an end we should expect an increase in leveraged long positions. In terms of options trading, we saw increased holdings at the top. Prior to Powell's speech about 600 bullish options (now in-the-money) ranging from $62,500 to $63,000 were purchased. Even further out into December and March investors continue adding their long positions between $80k-$85k.

BTC has steadily returned to a range of $61k-$70k with sell-side supply gradually decreasing and net inflows occurring on ten out of twelve days for spot ETFs over past two weeks . Similar to last night’s situation crypto market seems looking for opportunities break this months-long bull flag pattern . While next week’s Nvidia earnings report upcoming September rate cuts are significant , we believe spot market will fluctuate within this range until fourth quarter . We still think US election accompanied seasonal factors bull market could serve catalyst setting new historical highs.