RBC: If the U.S. unemployment rate rises to 4.4%, a 50 basis point cut will likely occur
RBC Capital Markets economist Michael Reid stated that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.4%, a 50 basis point cut would likely occur. However, he also said that if the unemployment rate falls and job growth remains at or above 100,000, the Federal Reserve will be cautious about significant cuts. Especially in the run-up to presidential elections, the Fed could be accused of favoring the ruling party by stimulating the economy through interest rate cuts. The futures market expects a first cut of 25 basis points from the Fed this month, with cumulative cuts reaching one percentage point this year and several more 25 basis point cuts expected by 2025.
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