Goldman Sachs: It's unlikely that U.S. stocks will enter a bear market

Goldman Sachs strategists say that it is unlikely for the U.S. stock market to plummet by 20% or more, as the risk of economic recession remains low. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. The Goldman research team led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann stated that although influenced by rising valuations, mixed prospects for economic growth and policy uncertainty, U.S stocks may fall before year-end but there's a small chance of entering a bear market due to support from a "healthy private sector" in the US economy. In addition, historical analysis by strategists shows that since the 1990s, instances of SP 500 index falling more than 20% have become less frequent due to extended business cycles, reduced macroeconomic volatility and central bank "buffering". They maintain tactical neutrality in asset allocation but "mildly support risk views" within a 12-month timeframe.